NIFTY DAILY OUTLOOK DEC 10, 2010
On Thursday, market opened flat and started falling step by step down however market faced heavy selling pressure during final hour of trading session with selling across all indices and closed down in red. Overall it was a highly volatile trading session. Volume for the day was higher then previous trading session. Market breadth was negative. Midcap and Small caps index closed down in red.
For the day, the level of 5750 and 5725 may act as a major support for the market and the level of 5810 and 5836 may act as a major hurdle. Market may remain highly volatile.
"Spot Levels" Day trader can go long on nifty above 5810 with stop loss 5780 for target 5835 / 5870 and can go short below 5750 with stop loss 5780 for target 5725 / 5690.
Positional short recommended above the level of 6000 and added more below the level of 5930 hit target 1 of 5845, can book 40% of the short position at market and hold remaining position with stop loss of 5845 closing basis on nifty spot for targets 5625 and 5410.
Index Range
Nifty: 5766.50
Range: 5690-5870
Resistance: 5810-5835-5870
Support: 5750-5725-5690
Bank Nifty: 11116
Range: 10830-11375
Resistance: 11160-11265-11375
Support: 11045-10935-10830
Short term: Down (5930)
Medium term: Down (6030)
Long term: Up (5350)
Cash Market Trading Activity (Prov. Figure in Rs. Crores)
Cat: Buy Val - Sell Val= Net Val
FII: 3726.39-5022.69= -1296.3
DII: 2235.40-1407.48= +827.92
All Above Spot Levels
REGARDS
ABHIVANDAN NAGIA
ABN STOCKS & TRADING IDEAS
Daily Insight: There is disillusionment with realty companies
Real estate is a cesspool of dishonesty and criminality….
The cesspool that is realty
Buyers pay the price of developers' and mortgage officials' malfeasance
It could just be a coincidence, but the pace at which business-related scams are surfacing now is quite amazing. In a matter of weeks, not only has the long-simmering telecom scam come to a boil, we also have a brand new real estate loan scam on our hands. While the telecom scam has been widely known for a while and is of active interest in political and media circles, the real estate scam has immediate investment implications.
The BSE Realty index hit a recent high on October 6 and is down about 30 per cent since then. The decline has actually been much sharper in an even shorter period since then. This index is down about 26 per cent since November 9th. Even apart from the scam, realty stocks go into a free fall at any sign of weakness, and this has been the case for a long time now.
Clearly, investors have no trust in these stocks. And with good reason too, as this scandal demonstrates. Even though the exact contours of the loan scam are not yet clear, the broad framework is obvious. There are many, many real estate outfits to whom all legitimate means of financing are closed. No investor in his right mind would subscribe to their IPOs. And after the horrors of October 2008, no lender would touch them either. Or perhaps I should say lenders who are worried about getting their money back would not touch them. Lenders who have been bribed are obviously a different matter.
The net effect has been that real estate companies have managed to get their hands on lines of credit to which they shouldn't have access. They have managed to sustain criminally high prices and simulate (not stimulate) demand because they had this money to play with. Even in the worst of times, even when equity financing and most legitimate debt financing has been closed to them, they have managed to hang on to assets instead of having to sell them at realistic prices. The final impact has been on the buyer who has either not been able to buy a house, or has had to pay much more than he should have.
For investors, this episode is yet another chapter in the continued disillusionment with realty companies. I've suspected all along — and I've been saying this often enough — that there's some sort of a genetic problem with realty companies. I think this stands confirmed. There's a lethal combination of many elements at work here. The starting point is the huge overhang of housing shortage that has built up over decades. Add to that the tremendous demand unleashed by rising incomes and aspirations for a better lifestyle. Add to that the ease with which wealth can be generated by government actions like land-use change. Add to that the ability to sink vast quantities of unaccountable cash. Add to that an utter lack of any regulatory framework.
One would have to be a complete fool to expect any sort of an honest business environment to emerge out of this mess. Real estate is a cesspool of dishonesty and criminality and the circumstances are such that it will remain so. Investors are welcome to dabble in it — weaving their holdings in and out of scrips as the good and bad news flows and ebbs. Sure, there might be some clean and investment worthy realty stocks out there — but you need to get real about your chances of finding them and making money out of them.
-- Dhirendra Kumar
Stock Updates 2 Dec 2010
2010-12-02 Nifty
| Nifty (5961) : {Spot levels} Support @ 5930 - 5890 - 5850 - 5815 - 5765 - 5730 - 5690 Resistance @ 5990 - 6030 - 6080 - 6112 - 6150 |
2010-12-02 SBI
| SBI (3100) : Cross over above 3115 stock will shoot to 3150 and then upto 3190 levels which is strong resistance on higher levels, how ever crosses and sustains above it then expect stock to zoom further to 3255 which is rock solid hurdle on higher levels. Down ward side 3080 is nearest and crucial support for the day, below 3080 next support around 3045, 3015 and 2980. |
2010-12-02 Canbnk
| Canbank (744) : 762 is nearest and 785 is solid hurdle on higher levels. Down ward side 720 is nearest and 695 is strong support. |
2010-12-02 BOI
| BOI (484) : 495 and 507 is strong resistance on higher levels. Down ward side 473 is nearest and crucial support for the day. Break below 473 stock looks weak. |
2010-12-02 Bfutility
| Bfutility (789) : Expect 835 and 850 if crosses and sustains above 800. 770 is nearest and crucial support for the day. |
2010-12-02 Ranbaxy
| Ranbaxy (576) : Cross over above 581 stock looks good to buy for 603. |
2nd Dec 2010
Daily Tips:- 02-12-2010 SSL- Strict Stop Loss
NIFTY SPOT RESISTANCE 1-5990, 2-6019, 3-6058. SUPPORT 1-5928, 2-5894, 3-5807.
SENSEX RESISTANCE 1-19950, 2-20049, 3-20182. SUPPORT 1-19736, 2-19621, 3-19326.
| 1) BHEL | BUY ABOVE @ | 2217.5 | TARGET | 2223.9 | 2237 | 2255 | STOP LOSS | 2205.2 |
| 2) BHEL | SELL BELOW @ | 2205.2 | TARGET | 2199.4 | 2188 | 2157 | STOP LOSS | 2217.5 |
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| 3) CIPLA | BUY ABOVE @ | 368.5 | TARGET | 371.9 | 379 | 391 | STOP LOSS | 360.7 |
| 4) CIPLA | SELL BELOW @ | 360.7 | TARGET | 356.4 | 348 | 329 | STOP LOSS | 368.5 |
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| 5) BAJAJ-AUTO | SELL BELOW @ | 1567.7 | TARGET | 1564.3 | 1558 | 1539 | STOP LOSS | 1576.9 |
| 6) BAJAJ-AUTO | BUY ABOVE @ | 1576.9 | TARGET | 1582.8 | 1595 | 1613 | STOP LOSS | 1567.7 |
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| 7) CANBK | SELL BELOW @ | 740.7 | TARGET | 737.4 | 731 | 715 | STOP LOSS | 748.3 |
| 8) CANBK | BUY ABOVE @ | 748.3 | TARGET | 752.6 | 761 | 776 | STOP LOSS | 740.7 |
Daily Morning Glance -19-11-10
Kindly find SPA's Morning Glance dt. November 19 , 2010. To view the full report, please Click-Here
The markets closed on positive note on Thursday. However, the overall market breadth was negative, around 61.3% of shares declined on BSE and 69.2% of shares declined on NSE. Out of the total 3,085 shares traded at BSE, 1,052 advanced, 1,893 declined, while 140 remained unchanged. Indian markets bounced back on Thursday snapping earlier losses. The Sensex ended with modest gains after an awfully choppy trading session. Midcap and Smallcap index underperformed significantly. Metal and auto stocks gained ground, while banking and consumer durable dropped the most. After a firm start, the Sensex witnessed a sharp fall in the early trade on the back of aggressive selling pressure seen across all counters. However, it made a smart recovery amid volatility in the afternoon trade. Finally, it closed in the positive terrain after touching a high of 20,056.44. India's primary article inflation for the week ended November stood at 13.3% versus 14.87% for the previous week. Food inflation index rose by 10.3% as against 12.3% while the fuel inflation stood at 10.57% versus 10.67%.
Volumes on BSE and NSE both rose on Thursday. BSE amounted to Rs 53.1 billion and NSE amounted to Rs 196.8 billion. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex gained 65.50 points or 0.33% at 19,930.64 with 19 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 10.10 points or 0.17% at 5,998.80 with 29 components posting rise.
What's inside?
1) Market Snapshot (including Indian Indices, FIIs & MF Activity, Derivatives segment etc.).
2) Global Market Indices Data (at 7.45 am today).
3) Major Sensex Gainers & losers.
4) Today's major Corporate Actions.
5) Corporate News Snippets.
6) Commodity Update.
7) Major NSE & BSE Bulk Deals.
We hope you find the report of interest and relevance.
19th November 2010
Indian Markets Technicals
We expect Nifty & Sensex to touch 6371 & 21161 above 6136 & 20345. If the markets moves below 6136 & 20345 levels, then it will try to touch 5900 & 19529 levels.
Economy
We expect the price of Lime Stone to fall by 40-45% in next 1 year. We also expect the price of Gypsum to fall by 35-40% in next 1 year.
Derivatives Calls
Futures (Weekly)
Buy Nifty Nov.'10 at current levels with a target of 6136.00 & with a stoploss below 5991.00.
Buy BankNifty Nov.'10 at current levels with a target of 12705.00 & with a stoploss below 12330.00.
Very Long Term Delivery Calls (1-2 Years)
We strongly recommend a buy on ABG Shipyard Ltd. at current levels with a long-term target of 1204.00.
We strongly recommend a buy on ACC Ltd. at current levels with a long-term target of 2208.00.
Long Term Delivery Calls (4-6 Months)
We strongly recommend a buy on VTM at current levels with a long-term target of 239.00.
We strongly recommend a buy on Rane Engine Valve at current levels with a long-term target of 388.00.
Medium Term Delivery Calls (3-4 Months)
We strongly recommend a buy on Sadbhav Engineering Ltd. at current levels with a medium-term target of 1976.00 & with a stoploss below 1368.00.
We strongly recommend a buy on Shriram City Union Finance Ltd. at current levels with a medium-term target of 932.00 & with a stoploss below 548.00.
Short Term Delivery Calls (1-2 Months)
Sell Simplex Infrastructure Ltd. at current levels with a short-term target of 401.00 & with a stoploss above 480.00.
Buy Sintex Inds. Ltd. at current levels with a short-term target of 314.00 & with a stoploss below 174.00.
Performance of Calls
Noida Toll Bridge Co. buy call given @ 32.70 has achieved its target of 39.00 & has given a profit of 19.27% in 47 Days.
Eicher Motors Ltd. buy call given @ 847.50 has achieved its target of 1349.00 & has given a profit of 59.17% in 5 Months.
Uflex Ltd. buy call given @ 143.30 has achieved its target of 294.00 & has given a profit of 105.16% in 66 Days.
NIIT Tech. LTd. buy call given @ 181.80 has achieved its target of 225.00 & has given a profit of 23.76% in 2 Months.
Devp. Credit Bank buy call given @ 48.25 has achieved its target of 66.00 & has given a profit of 36.79% in 2 Months.
Capital Trust Ltd. buy call given @ 66.00 has achieved its target of 96.00 & has given a profit of 45.45% in 81 Days.
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. buy call given @ 541.30 has achieved its target of 743.00 & has given a profit of 37.26% in 3 Months.
Escorts Ltd. buy call given @ 110.60 is closed & has given a profit of 104.66% in 1 Year.
LKP Finance Ltd. buy call given @ 115.00 is closed & has given a profit of 32.65% in 3 Months.
Bata India Ltd. buy call given @ 186.30 is closed & has given a profit of 79.90% in 1 Year.
Bank of Baroda buy call given @ 476.40 is closed & has given a profit of 83.52% in 1 Year.
Super Crop Safe Ltd. buy call given @ 11.08 has achieved its target of 16.00 & has given a profit of 44.40% in 44 Days.
Axis Bank Ltd. buy call given @ 1311.75 has achieved its target of 1565.00 & has given a profit of 19.31% in 44 Days.
Please let me know your thoughts on this subject.
I look forward to hearing from you. Thank you for letting me express my concerns to you.
Regards
Vikash Agarwal
Rourkela. Orissa. India
Mobile : +919437202566
--
9am with Emkay
9am with Emkay
Contents
ABG Shipyard Q2FY11 Result – First Cut Analysis
Above estimates
n ABG Shipyard (ABGS) delivered strong performance during Q2FY11 was above estimates.
n Revenues (including subsidy income) grew by 38% yoy to Rs5555 mn – above estimates.
n Operating margins (including subsidy income) declined 100 bps yoy to 26.2% - though above estimates. Expansion in operating margins was due to higher raw material costs. Consequently growth in operating profits was lower at 33% yoy to Rs1454 mn – marginally above estimates.
n Led by strong operational performance, adjusted net profits increased 39% yoy to Rs637 mn – above estimates. After accounting for losses on sale of investments of Rs74 mn, ABGS reported net profit of Rs563 mn
n At CMP, the stock is trading at 10.2X FY11E and 9.5X FY12E earnings of Rs44.4 and Rs47.5 per share respectively.
Inflation eases by 4bps to 8.58%, core inflation inches up to 5.1%
n Headline inflation for the month of October eased marginally by 4bps to 8.58%.
n Primary articles inflation has eased to 16.7%, driven mainly by the presence of a high base.
n Inflation in primary articles showed a broad based increase on a MoM basis, led by price increases in potatoes (9.4% MoM), onions (24.2% MoM), fruits (4.7% MoM) and fibres (8.5% MoM).
n Fuel inflation saw a drop by 10bps, but also saw the price of petrol increase by 1.7% MoM.
n Manufactured products inflation inched up to 4.8% in the month of October from 4.6% last month.
n Core inflation that has been trending downwards has made a slight northward move to 5.1% from 4.9% last month.
n With YTD inflation for FY11 at 4.3%, the broad downtrend in inflation would probably stay unaffected.
n The month of November is likely to see primary articles inflation easing considerably owing to a favourable base effect. This in turn would bring about a significant drop in headline inflation.
Lupin Pharma Q2FY11 Result Update; Robust earnings; Revise target price upwards; Accumulate; Target: Rs496
n Strong operating performance largely driven by robust growth momentum in US, Europe, Japan and India coupled with favorable product mix
n US branded business grew at 24% (adjusted for one time impact of change in accounting treatment for rebates) and India formulations at 22% (adjusted for inventory correction)
n Both existing and new prescriptions seeing growth in Antara; OC launches in US in Q312 will aid long term revenue visibility
n On account of improved performance, revise earning estimates and raise target to Rs496; Maintain Accumulate, owing to limited upside
HPCL Q2FY11 Result Update; Results above expectation, Maintain BUY; Target: Rs.515
n HPCL reported results which were above our estimates at EBIDTA and PAT Level, primarily due to issuance of oil bonds/Cash receivables during the quarter
n EBIDTA at Rs.24.8bn, against Rs1.7bn, YoY, mainly due to inventory Gain and issuance of oil bonds/cash receivables from the government of India
n Average gross refining margin for 1H FY11 was at $3.2/bbl as compared to $3.8/bbl (decline by 18% YoY) below our expectation of $3.7/bbl.
n Valuations look attractive at 1x FY12E ABV, mainly due to recent change in reforms, Continue BUY rating with TP of Rs.515
Glenmark Pharma Q2FY11 Result Update; On a comeback trail; Upgrade to Accumulate; Target: Rs381
n Adjusted PAT growth of 27% was in-line driven by a) 23% growth in sales at Rs7.4bn (est. of Rs7bn) and b) 11% growth in EBITDA at Rs1.87bn (est. Rs1.77bn)
n Revenue growth was driven by a) 19% growth in Speciality business (55% contribution to top line) and b) 27% growth in Generics business (45% contribution to top line)
n Managements conscious effort to clean the balance sheet is a welcome move; further improvement in working capital situation can lead to expansion in valuation
n Positive Ph-III trials a step forward for Crofelemer launch
n Tweak earning estimates; raise target price to Rs381 (Rs308 earlier); upgrade to Accumulate from Hold
IOCL Q2FY11 Result Update; Results above expectation, ACCUMULATE; Target: Rs.458
n IOCL reported results which were above our estimates at EBIDTA and PAT Level, primarily due to inventory gain and issuance of oil bonds/Cash receivables during the quarter
n EBIDTA at Rs.68.9bn, against Rs.6.1bn a year ago, mainly due to Inventory gain and issuance of oil bonds/cash receivables from the government of India
n Average gross refining margin for 1H FY11 was at $4.7/bbl as compared to $5.4/bbl (declined by 13% YoY) above our expectation of $3.5/bbl.
n Valuations look attractive at 1.4x FY12E ABV, mainly due to recent change in reforms, Accumulate rating with TP of Rs.458
Tata Steel Q2FY11 Result Update; Getting fit for future; Accumulate; Target: Rs 712
n Higher volume in Indian operations and slightly higher realization in European operation helped revenue growth of 5% to Rs 286.5 bn, in line with our expectations
n Higher raw material costs (up ~20% QoQ) weighed on the EBITDA margin, which fell 348 bps QoQ to 12.8%. EBITDA/ tonne for Tata Steel Europe remained at ~US$60
n Higher other income due to stake sales in Tata Motors and Tata Power helped consolidated PAT to grow 8.4% on QoQ to Rs 19.8 bn
n Revising up our earnings estimates for FY11E and FY12E to Rs 81.4 and Rs 97.8 respectively. We assign Accumulate on the stock
IVRCL Infrastructure Q2FY11 Result Update; Earnings continue to disappoint; Hold; Target: Rs160
n Q2FY11 PAT at Rs 233 mn sharply below estimates (Rs434 mn) led by revenue decline of 16%. Execution impacted by delays in financial closure of own BOT projects & extended monsoons
n EBITDA at Rs 706 mn down 41% margins at 6.7%, contracted 287 bps – as slow execution rate led to poor overhead absorption –impacting margins to an extent of 230 bps
n Mgmt revenue guidance of ~Rs6.75 bn, lowered to Rs 6.5 bn still implying a steep H2FY11E revenue growth of 42% & EBIDTA growth of 47%
n We believe IVRCL will continue to face execution headwinds as ~ 40% of order backlog remains slow moving. We cut FY11E/12E EPS by 19.5%/16.5%. Maintain HOLD - cut target to Rs160
Mahindra Satyam Q2FY11 Result Update; 'Growth+ cost' pangs= Margin pressures; REDUCE; Target Price: Rs 70
n Mahindra Satyam's result continue to indicate the 'Hard toil' faced by the company as Sep'10 qtr revenues decline by ~2% QoQ, margins falling by ~380 bps QoQ to 5.9%
n Result vindicate our negative stance on the company as it faces stiff challenges from both weaker competitive positioning in erstwhile areas of strength
n Cut our FY11E/12E/13E margins to 8.4%/14%/14.7% (V//s 15.2%/17.1%/17% earlier) driving a 48%/24%/19% in EPS to Rs 2.7/4.9/6(V/s Rs 5.1/6.4/7.5 earlier)
n Maintain REDUCE rating with a revised March'12 DCF based TP of Rs 70(V/s Rs 81 earlier, implying ~12.5x 1 yr forward P/E)
n Dealer Comments
The markets started the day's session on a positive note by 40 odd points upward gap led by weak to subdued cues from the world markets particularly the Asian counterparts. Immediately after a positive start markets slipped in the negative zone and kept on see sawing in both zones till almost post noon trades. Markets were just swaying around the Fridays closing levels in the absence of any major trigger leading to buying mood and even muted flows from the funds keeping the indices in a narrow range for time being. But post lower inflation data and improved trade data lead to very robust and renewed buying interest in banking stocks particularly the second rung banking stocks thereby taking the indices to positive terrain at the closing bells. B esides buying in fmcg, technology and select auto and healthcare stocks also aided the day's late rally. Finally once again markets closed the day on a positive note towards the end at almost day's highs with Sensex gaining 153 points or 0.76% higher to settle at 20310 levels while Nifty gained 50 points or 0.82% higher to settle at 6122 levels. The overall traded volumes were quite lower compared to the earlier day by almost 25% and were at Rs 1620 bn. While delivery based volumes were also lower compared to the earlier day at 38.2% of the total traded turnover. Among the Fund activities FII's were net sellers to the tune of Rs 6.74 bn on 12th November 2010. While on 15th November 2010, FII's bought shares worth Rs. 3.13 bn in cash segment (provisional) while in the F&O segment they were net sellers to the tune of Rs 16.67 bn whereas Domestic Funds sold shares worth Rs. 0.03 bn (provisional).
n Technical Comments
Within the falling channel
In today's session, Nifty saw the anticipated bounce, from the support of 50-daily simple moving average. However, we still stick to our bearish stance and recommend going short in range of 6130-6150. Moreover, on hourly degree Nifty is still trading within a falling channel and has also approached the upper boundary of that channel. Also, Nifty is just below the resistance of its 20-daily simple moving average. Hence this is the best time to go short, for all those, whose have missed the previous bus.
BSE Bankex
Today's move in BSE Bankex was just a relief rally, which has already retraced 50% of the previous fall and hence in the coming session its downtrend is expected to resume. The target for this index is still packed in range of 13600-13500.
TNS ASIA MORNING BRIEF: Shares down, Bank of Korea ups key rates
Phone: +91 (22) 6147 5100. feedback@tickerplantindia.com
PRE MARKET ANALYSIS - 26 Nov
public sector undertakings' (PSUs) stocks.
The Sensex opened in the negative territory at 17,149.08, tracking
subdued cues from the US markets. US markets slipped on Tuesday, as
the Gross Domestic Product figures were revised for the third quarter,
even as the Federal Reserve raised its growth expectations for 2010.
The Dow slipped 17 points to 10,434. The Nasdaq was slightly down, by
seven points, at 2,169.
The index rebounded immediately to touch an intra-day high of
17,290.48. The markets retraced some of their gains in the afternoon
session as a result of volatility ahead of the derivatives' series
expiry, but still managed to close well above the dotted line. The
Sensex ended at 17,198.95, up 67.87. The NSE Nifty settled at
5,108.15, up 17.60 points.
''The markets will remain choppy, with lots of opportunity'' as expiry
day and one can go buying in nifty options of dec as premium dropped
very low and can gain much from these levels.
One should be cautious as US markets are leading to year end
activities and long festive season ahead.
A bout of FII selling is not ruled out in near future.
The best part of the stock market is that "everything repeats". This
is huge plus, and a huge secret to making money with stocks.
Market cycles that used to take years to play out can now happen in
months, sometimes even in a single day. Flexibility is the only
sensible response to volatile markets and stocks with generous trading
ranges.
Outlook 22 Nov 2009
Dena Bank was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 16.1% gain. The other non-index stocks to go up included Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Great Eastern Shipping, Aban Offshore, Jindal Saw, Mercator Lines, Thinksoft Global Services and Suzlon Energy with gains between 14.4% and 9.5%.
Patni Computer was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 12.4% loss. The other non-index stocks to go down included HOEC, Aptech, Balrampur Chini, Mphasis, Bajaj Hindusthan, Jet Airways and IVRCL Infrastructures with losses falling between 10.1% and 5.9%.
INTERMEDIATE TREND: The market is almost certainly in an intermediate uptrend, though the CNX Midcap is the only index in a confirmed one. The Sensitive Index now has to cross 17,100 to confirm an uptrend, and the Nifty 5,080. The CNX Midcap would go into an intermediate downtrend if it breaches 6,371. The figure is likely to move up to around 7,000 if the market rallies early this week. It is best to assume that we are in an intermediate uptrend, as most stocks are in one, and a global uptrend is on.
LONG-TERM TREND:
Our market's long-term (major) trend is up. A close below the last intermediate bottom of 14,600 would end the bull market for the Sensitive Index. The Nifty's equivalent is 4,350, and that for the CNX Midcap Index is 5,600. Nearly 10% of the more heavily traded stocks are now in major downtrends. A continuous increase in this figure would threaten the bull market. The last intermediate downtrend saw the Sensitive Index retrace 77% of the 2,809-point gain made in the preceding intermediate uptrend. A 67% retracement is considered high for a bull market, and this is also a sign of possible longer-term weakness. However, it is still too early to write off the bull market. The majority of global indices are still in major (long-term) uptrends.
TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES: The bull market is now over a year old, and it would be safer to not increase exposure to equity. There is still no reason to reduce exposure either, as the bull market is still intact. Consider switching out from stocks which had fallen to threemonth lows or worse during the previous downtrend. Though most of such stocks are rallying now, they pose a higher longer-term risk. There will be no opportunity loss as the stocks being switched into would also benefit from a general rally. Sectors which looked shaky during the downtrend include telecom, fertilisers, cement and realty.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: Most global indices are in intermediate uptrends, and a global intermediate uptrend is on. The Nikkei and a couple of European indices are in intermediate downtrend, though. The Dow would fall into one if it goes below 10,150. A majority of markets remain in major uptrends, making this a global bull phase. It would take a fall below 8,000 for the Dow to go into a bear market.
The Sensitive Index gained 98.6% in the twelve months that ended on Thursday, up one position to the 5th place among 35 well-known global indices considered for the study. Argentina continues to head the list with a 159.1% gain. Russia, Turkey, Indonesia and the Sensitive Index follow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 36.8% and the NASDAQ Composite has gained 63.9% over the same period. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration) (The author is an independent technical analyst)
