Fwd: [ISG:271938] Re: Day Trading Guide
Day Trading Guide
DLF
Initiate fresh short position with tight stop-loss only if the stock fails to move beyond Rs 233 levels.
ICICI Bank
Fresh long position can be initiated with stiff stop-loss if the stock reverses upwards from Rs 859 levels.
Infosys
Initiate fresh long position with fixed stop-loss only if the stock exceeds Rs 2,862 levels.
L&T
Fresh long position can be initiated with stiff stop-loss if L&T rebounds up from Rs 1,340 levels.
ONGC
Make use of dips to buy the stock while maintaining tight stop-loss at Rs 273 levels.
Reliance Industries
As long as RIL trades above Rs 860, its near-term outlook stays positive. We recommend a buy with tight stop-loss at Rs 860 levels.
SBI
Fresh long position is recommended with stiff stop-loss only if the stock moves beyond Rs 1,888 levels.
Tata Motors
Initiate fresh long position with fixed stop-loss if Tata Motors climbs beyond Rs 195 levels.
Tata Steel
Fresh long position can be initiated with stiff stop-loss if the stock reveres higher from Rs 444 levels.
Nifty Futures
On Wednesday, Nifty Futures jumped 50 points or one per cent. As long as it trades above 5,192 levels, its near-term stance remains positive. We recommend a buy in Nifty Futures with tight stop-loss at 5,192 levels.
How low can the Sensex go? Aarati Krishnan
Live Research Report Uploads on Docstoc.com by Umakant Chaudhari
here is the link for the same docstoc.com/profile/icestar
All New Research Reports are Uploaded Live as they are send to me on my Email.
Hope this Research Reports Benefit you all for Trading in our Stock Markets.
Research Reports Nov 2011 on Sugar Syn
Research Reports Nov 2011 on Sugar Syn
India: Will An "Arab Spring" Turn Into An "Indian Summer"?
Each year, the cost of health care pushes some 39 million people back into poverty, according to a study published in the Lancet medical journal. Patients shoulder up to 80 percent of India's medical costs. Their share averages about $66 (3,000 rupees) annually per person - a crippling sum for the 800 million or so Indians living on less than $2 a day.
A diagnosis of asthma, a broken leg or a complicated childbirth can mean having to choose between medicine or food, spending on treatment or relying on prayer.
While India boasts an economic growth rate near 9 percent, the wealth has done little to help millions burdened by poverty and disease. The poor, aside from struggling to afford care, also face extreme shortages of doctors and medicines.
The situation is particularly dire in rural areas, where more than 70 percent of the country's 1.2 billion people live. Some desperate patients resort to seeing quacks. Others pay bribes. Many simply don't seek help until it is too late.
The World Bank and other experts have warned that failure to address the country's health care woes could take a toll on long-term growth - especially as two-thirds of the population is under 35 and would form the backbone of India's work force for decades.
Yet India's government spends comparatively little on health care: just 1.1 percent of the country's GDP, a figure that hasn't changed much since 2006 when China was spending 1.9 percent; Russia, 3.3 percent and Brazil, 3.5 percent, according to World Health Organization figures.
"The political will is simply not there yet. We have to help realign the country's priorities," said Dr. K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India and part of a government-commissioned committee recommending reforms.
Statistics that might highlight areas of need are scarce, thanks to erratic case reporting, few autopsies and a tradition of quick cremation that destroys evidence of disease. WHO reports often leave India out for lack of data. A recent study in the Lancet suggests malaria deaths could be 10 times higher than estimated.
India, which says hospital costs impoverish a quarter of all patients, has vowed to raise spending on health to 3 percent of GDP by 2015 and provide universal primary health care - but it's an unfilled promise that's been made before.
The Lancet, in a series on India in January, urged the government to double its pledge to 6 percent by 2020 or jeopardize its ability to shake off poverty.
"What is the point of economic success if there is nothing in it for the population?" Lancet editor Richard Horton said. "In a short amount of time you can do a lot - if you have the right leadership, the right administration and the public will. India has the people and it has the funds. We'll see if they can do it."
Meanwhile, India boasts a thriving medical tourism industry with shiny private clinics luring tens of thousands of foreigners for everything from bargain tummy tucks to experimental stem-cell treatments in an industry estimated to be worth nearly 100 billion rupees ($2.3 billion). The pharmaceutical industry is making lifesaving drugs at cut-rate costs, private hospitals are pioneering advances in open-heart surgery and medical schools are churning out physicians eager to work in the West.
For most Indians, however, this is happening in another world.
Uttar Pradesh, one of India's poorest states and home to the padlock-manufacturing city of Aligarh, is a land of barren rural landscapes pocked by crumbling mud huts, wandering cattle and roadside shacks selling potato chips and curry.
Its infant mortality rate - 96 of every 1,000 newborns die - makes it one of the worst places on Earth to be born. The average Indian rate is better at 63 but still grim compared with China's 15 deaths out of every 1,000 births.
The state's leader, Mayawati, who uses only one name, rose from India's lowest caste to power and prominence. She calls health care a top priority. Yet since taking office in 2007 she has spent just $224 million on medicines for the state's 195 million people, while spending $569 million to build memorial parks and statues of leading dalits - also known as untouchables - such as herself.
In rural India, the poor often have to walk kilometers (miles) to reach a clinic, with no guarantee of finding a doctor or the medicine they need. On any given day, at least 40 percent of government doctors are absent - often busy moonlighting for higher pay at private clinics. Drug supplies are also erratic; last year, India was short 35 million vaccine doses for diphtheria and 30 million for tetanus, a Health Ministry report said.
Many patients simply rely on traditional holistic medicine approaches such as ayurveda, or seek help from quacks, who have become so common the government uses them as information sources on everything from environmental contamination to polio outbreaks.
They advertise in graffiti scrawled across roadside buildings in rural Uttar Pradesh, promising treatments for venereal disease, erectile dysfunction, urinary tract infections - and charging according to what patients can pay.
In the meantime, private health care is booming, with clinics and insurance schemes multiplying and driving up costs. There are piecemeal efforts to help: a national mission launched in 2005 to improve rural care, and some states offering to cover hospital bills for the poorest.
Mutual Fund Review: Taurus Tax Shield
Taurus Tax Shield has seen a turnaround in performance since 2007, but still remains a volatile offering…
The fund has seen a turnaround in its performance since 2007 and has delivered impressively during market rallies since then.
The portfolio is also more diversified. It contained its downfall to an average level in 2008 but is still one of the most volatile offerings in this category. Bold investors can look at this fund.
Strategy
The fund manager invests across the market capitalisation and sectors. The selection of stocks is made on the basis of long-term business prospects and value creation.
Fund Insight
Launched in March 1996, the fund was a laggard with just two annual outperformances. Concentrated stock bets and high exposure to mid and small caps led to it being hit harder during market downturns. The number of stocks in the portfolio never exceeded 20 and it was not rare to see the top 5 holdings account for around 60 per cent of the portfolio.
After being the worst performing tax planning fund in 2006, it grabbed the top slot in 2007, thanks to concentrated stock and sector bets and high exposure to mid and small caps.
Once the market started its southward journey in January 2008, the fund turned into a more diversified offering. The number of stocks increased and allocation to the top holdings decreased. Coupled with increased exposure to large caps and high cash positions, the fund limited its fall to an average level.
There has been a lot of reshuffling in the fund's portfolio as it has seen frequent fund manager changes. Sadanand Shetty, who joined in May 2010, cut down exposure to Engineering and increased it to Financial Services.
Portfolio Insight
A diversified offering of 38 stocks with the top 5 cornering 26 per cent of the portfolio. Prior to 2008, a clear bias towards mid and small caps was evident. More recently, a multi-cap approach has been adopted and the portfolio changes according to market conditions. Large-cap exposure has moved from 62 per cent (December 2008) to 25 per cent (October 2009) and now stands at close to 74 per cent.
Risks
The track record shows a lot of aggression in terms of concentrated sector and stocks bets. In September 2007, Financial Services accounted for around half (52.43%) the fund's portfolio. Such stances could backfire tremendously.
Easy Guide to Financial Planning
Financial planning simply means planning finances to meet your future needs. There has been a lot of material based on academic research on the subject, developed over the last few decades and being used by individuals now.
The most popular and followed approach is goal-based financial planning. This simply means:
IDENTIFY A FUTURE NEED: It could be buying a house, planning a vacation, children's education, retirement, etc.
MEASURE THE TIME: Determine how much time will be required to fulfil the need. Will it take six months, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years or 20 years?
RISK PROFILE: Determine the ability to take risk to achieve the goal. In layman's terms, how much loss the individual can bear for the investment to meet his need.
Once the goal or need is identified, the time period is calculated and the risk profile identified, an appropriate investment portfolio needs to be constructed for the amount saved for the goal. Individual investors should keep a few basic things in mind while selecting securities to help them achieve their goals.
DIVERSIFICATION: For every need, the portfolio constructed should be diversified. This probably remains the most important aspect while investing and has been proven to be right way of investing for ages. Diversification can be achieved by holding different asset classes, like equity, fixed income, real estate, gold/commodities, property, etc. One should avoid holding a single asset class portfolio as much as possible.
LIQUIDITY: This is an important aspect one should consider while investing. A few pitfalls of not considering this: not being able to exit while the market is in for a serious fall (eg, the fall of equities in 2008), the investment portfolio is illiquid and the invested paper is not saleable (FMPs holding real estate papers in 2008), etc.
EXPENSES: This is an important aspect an investor should consider. Many products would look very attractive before the expenses are taken into account. But once you add entry and exit loads, management fee, back office expenses and profit share (if applicable), these products would not look all that good.
TAXATION: Not many investors calculate how much short-term taxes could eat into the returns on their investments.
AUTHENTIC SOURCES OF DATA: If possible, an investor should verify the accuracy of the data presented about the performance of a product. Normally, it is difficult to do, otherwise the investor should ask for audited numbers.
For a retail investor, mutual funds are good options for investing in equities, fixed income, and gold/commodities. Unless one is very good in stock-picking and has a proven track record, mutual fund is a very good way to hold diversified portfolios. One could go a step further by investing through multi-asset, multi-manager fund of funds, where asset rebalancing and fund selection are done by a fund manager on behalf of the investor at a negligible additional cost.
Once an investor has constructed the portfolio, he/she should rebalance it on a regular basis. Rebalancing means analysing the market values of each asset class in the portfolio and checking whether they are still in line with expectations. For example, if the equity holding, intended to be 50% of the portfolio, has increased to 60%, the investor should redeem 10% and put it into another asset class. In this case, the investor should be guard against rebalancing the portfolio as this could entail higher transaction expenses and realisation of capital gains tax. Investors should look for vehicles, such as multi-asset fund of fund in case of mutual funds to minimise such expenses.
Second, an investor should analyse whether the individual instruments he or she is holding in each asset class are performing well. If not, a change may be required. In this case, too, frequent changes could entail higher transaction expenses and realisation of capital gains tax.
Cox & King
There is rumours in the market that COX & King European acquisition has almost finalized and announcement may come in a day or two.Technically stock is looking very good and today stock has made 22trading days high, Weekly Fry Pan bottom is seen, daily Rounding bottom formation and stock has moved on higher volumes.Technically, if it is able to close above 410-412 it can move very fast 1st target could be 437-440. one can buy stock with strict SL of Rs. 380.
Income TAX misconceptions
Given below are a few well known myths and their solutions
Contrary to popular belief, filing tax return is quite simple. You can fill and submit the returns online, print a receipt, sign it and drop it off at the income tax office within fifteen days 3 Home loan interest I pay is deductible from my income from house property. This is true if you have home loan for a single house. If you have loan on a second house, interest paid on loan can be claimed as a deduction from your income 4 I receive tax exemption on the rent I pay for my home. If actual rent paid is lower than 10 per cent of your basic salary you receive no exemption. Also, you cannot claim any exemption under this section if you live in your own home 5 Section 80C benefits are available only on making investment. You can claim a deduction for the tuition fees you pay for your children (maximum of two) as long as they are enrolled in a full time programme at any institute in India 6 If I avail medical reimbursement, I can't claim relief on health insurance premium.
Tax free medical reimbursement by your employer for your family's medical expenditure is separate from the deduction available under Section 80D 7 The only interest payment I can claim is the interest paid on home loans. There is a section in the Income Tax Act called 80E that allows deduction on interest paid on loans taken for higher education for self, spouse and children 8 Interest I earn on my savings account balance is exempt from income tax.
Interest income from any source is subject to income tax. If you do not want tax to be deducted you can spread your deposits across multiple bank branches 9 I have to pay taxes on interest received from my fixed deposits only on maturity.
Your tax liability on interest income from your fixed deposit is calculated on an accrual basis. You need to pay tax on the interest credited to your FD account 10 I received cash as a gift from a friend, so don't have to pay tax. If you receive a cash gift, which exceeds Rs 50,000 in one financial year, you are liable to pay I-T. The good news is cash gifts during marriage are totally free from tax Source: iTrust Financial Advisors
Mutual Fund Review: HDFC Taxsaver
HDFC Taxsaver will take contrarian bets but its performance history speaks for itself
After beating its peers almost every year (barring 1999 and 2002) in its history of close to 14 years, the fund found itself in the fourth quartile in 2007. It was the only year when it underperformed the S&P CNX 500.
But the very next year, it was back to a top quartile performance. It not only curtailed its fall to a lower level in 2008 but also delivered close to 100 per cent in 2009.
The fund has generated superior returns and shown resilience while protecting the downside time and again. Its 10-year annualised return is 28 per cent (February 28, 2010).
Strategy
The fund's mandate is not limited across market caps or sectors.
Fund Insight
Although currently over half of the fund's assets are into large caps, it has not always been the case. In 2004, almost half of the fund's assets were into small caps. In 2006, when large caps outperformed, the fund increased exposure to large caps to 60 per cent of the portfolio and did it again in 2008.
It is among the very few funds which have invested in the Indian Depository Receipts (IDR) of Standard Chartered PLC (UK) and is amongst the few not holding Reliance Industries in its portfolio. Even in its sector allocation the fund is not wary of contrarian moves. In 2000, when most funds were heavy on IT stocks, this one held onto FMCG stocks and was quick to offload its Tech exposure. It delivered 5.74 per cent that year (category average: -24.13%). In 2009 when Energy was chased (category average exposure: 16%), this fund had just 10 per cent allocated. Its contrarian moves can backfire. Being relatively underweight to Energy and Metals in 2007 led to the dismal performance that year.
Portfolio Insight
The rising asset base has led to an increase in the number of stocks to 55, from around 40 stocks (end 2007). However, the fund has a long tail of stocks (currently 23) each with an allocation of less than 1 per cent. They collectively account for close to 10 per cent of the fund's portfolio. With the top 5 holdings accounting for 22 per cent, the fund looks well diversified. Allocation to a single stock has rarely exceeded 7 per cent after Kulkarni took over in November 2006.
Risks
At times the fund is seen taking aggressive sector bets. For instance, Auto (26%) and Engineering (25%) in 2005. Contra sector bets could also backfire.
According to Global Financial Integrity -- a non-profit organisation -- the estimated value of illegal financial flows held abroad is around $500 billion.
"While calculating this into Indian money, the amount comes up to a whopping Rs 22.5 lakh crore (Rs 22.5 trillion).
"As per Konrad Hummler, chairman of the Swiss Private Bankers Association, $1 trillion -- out of the $2.8 trillion -- in Swiss banks is black money.
"WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange had also said that a majority of the funds stashed away in the Swiss banks belonged to Indians. This would mean that out of the 1 trillion Swiss francs more than half could be owned by Indians. This alone comes to more than $500 billion (1 Swiss franc = 1.2 US dollars). And this is only bank deposits.
"While these are just statistics, the key question is how do we bring back this money . . . If the government is serious about it then it can very well bring back this money. However, the seriousness of the government in this matter is very crucial in this case."
A delegation led by the Prime Minister of India himself must speak with the Swiss officials regarding this issue. However, this need not be in public glare and there is no need to disclose names and things like that."The intention should be to bring back the money. Why I am saying that the prime minister should head these talks is because only then will the seriousness of the issue be known to the country in question.
"Now bringing back this money may not seem as easy as it sounds. When we speak with the officials concerned in those countries, we need to tell them to return this money. However, we should also offer to pay 20 per cent tax on the amount while bringing it back. This would make the process easier and also more convincing.
"The other question now would be what happens to the persons who have stashed away their money in these banks.
"If the money is earned through legitimate means then that person could move the Reserve Bank of India and make a claim. He would need to prove that the money that was stashed away was earned through legal means and would have to submit proof for the same.
"However if the money has been earned illegally then he may as well forget about it."
Signs Pointing to Another Round of Global Recession**
These guys do a good prediction of the recession, and it is still a bit further away although moving in that direction......Every definitive dip below zero predicts the recession in the US. This applies only to US, but when US gets a cold, everything starts to sniffle or get a cold also (at least that has been the case in the past).
KKP
On 6/6/2011 3:05 AM, Murtaza Merchant wrote:
Over the past several weeks it's become clear that the global economy is turning down
* Japan returned to recession last month. So did Denmark.
* Malaysia, Botswana, Ireland, Australia, Portugal and Norway all posted negative GDP growth in t...he most recent quarter.
* The euro zone, laden with insolvent countries, is growing at just 0.8 percent. And Germany, the star of the euro zone, is only growing at 1.5 percent — well below its trend growth.
* And there is an increasing likelihood that Europe is in store for a destabilizing economic shock — through a euro member sovereign debt default or a member departure from the monetary union. At best, euro-zone countries could get another extension to put off those aforementioned scenarios, through even more stifling austerity measures.
Given that backdrop, Europe could be quick to follow Japan and Denmark into recession.
As for the UK: The new coalition govt came in last year slashing spending & raising taxes in order to curtail its bulging deficit. Yet its deficit has barely budged. Nor has its economy. In fact, it's flat lined for the past 6 months — no growth. Despite all the govt stimulus, rescues, borrowing, and money printing, the economy is STILL stumbling and slumping. The job market is coming apart at the seams manufacturing is fading fast … housing is sinking again … consumer spending is on the ropes!
How about the Largest Economy in the World?
This was expected to be a great year for the U.S. recovery, many private economists were foreseeing above 4% growth — some estimates were as high as 5 %. But it's turning out to be quite different … The annualized growth for the first quarter is coming in at just 1.8% ! That's not only well below expectations, but well below the country's historical growth trend, even following unprecedented government stimulus.
That was last quarter. This quarter is looking even worse …
• The U.S. housing market is at new post-bubble burst lows, exceeding the decline marked in the Great Depression.
• Manufacturing activity just recorded the worst slide since 1984.
• Confidence has plunged to six month lows.
• And employment growth has now slowed sharply.
At Least We Have China to Lean on, Right? Not so fast.
Through the global financial crisis where more than 60 countries were simultaneously in recession, China's economy still put up solid — in some cases, eye popping — growth. Of course, it took the largest fiscal stimulus package in the world (relative to GDP) to produce that growth. But it was in China's direction where the rest of the world looked, to spearhead a global recovery.
Don't expect China to prop up the global economy during the next recession.
This time, this downturn, China won't be there to open up the spigot of money on its economy. Nor will China have such easy money to spread around the world. Its economy is already overheated. That's why the Chinese have been in a fight to shut the spigot and mop up the money. And it's proving a difficult fight.
Moreover, this time a recession would be accompanied by a sovereign debt crisis that could make the fallout that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers look like just the opening act.
But the next wave of economic pain shouldn't take anyone by surprise. In fact, history shows us it's exactly what we should be expecting following a widespread synchronized global financial crisis and global recession … more booms, more busts, more shocks and a long bumpy road to recovery.
In sum: If the recent data is truly signaling another round of recession, and if the crisis in global sovereign debt does, in fact, play out according to history (i.e. defaults), then expect this round of economic downturn to be worse than the first. After all, the global government ammunition that created the first technical recovery has been all but exhausted.
With that scenario in mind, the answer on whether global investors should be in "risk-on" or "risk-off" mode is pretty simple.Emerging Markets Are Looking Weak !
There are far reaching negative divergences on a global scale. Most emerging markets stock market indices saw their cyclical highs last November. Their charts are not only showing clear relative weakness, ...but well-formed potential topping formations have also developed.
Emerging markets were first to bottom out during the last bear market. And now they may again be ahead and leading the way into the next global bear market.
This is not the time to be in stocks. The market is at least 40% overvalued and the macroeconomic picture is deteriorating quickly.
One World One Chart
- Courtesy Rohit Srivastava
Insurance in DEMAT form
Like dematerialisation of securities, it will offer dual benefits of cost-effectiveness and convenience
The hassle of managing the paperwork for several insurance policies may soon become a relic. Going forward, you will be able to hold these in a 'demat' account, in an electronic format.
But, first, based on the guidelines issued by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irda) last Friday, repositories on the lines of the securities' depositories (such as the National Securities Depository or the Central Securities Depository) will be set up. These agencies would in turn open and hold the e-insurance account.
Industry players deem it a mammoth exercise due to the large number of policyholders and, hence, feel a timeline for the shift cannot be specified. However, understanding the procedural requirements and its advantages will help facilitate the shift, whenever it happens.
THE CONCEPT
Each individual will have his/her own separate and distinct account, with a unique account number. All life and general policies from different insurers can be held in this account. Similarly, parents or guardians can open an account for their minor children as well.
KNOW-YOUR-CUSTOMER (KYC) COMPLIANCE
This will depend on whether you approach the repository directly to open an account or via an insurer. In the former case, the repository will have to carry out the due diligence for establishing the genuineness of your identity.
You will have to give documents for identity and address proof. In case any additional detail is required, the repository will have to mail within three days of receiving the application. And, details of the method of operating the account within seven days of the application.
However, if you choose to open the account through an insurer, he/she will collect the requisite documents from you on the repository's behalf. Once the account is opened, any basic KYC compliance will be waived to avoid duplication of paperwork. Also, say you change your address, you will not have to approach the different insurers separately. You can change it by giving the necessary documents to the repository, who in turn will inform the policy issuers.
COSTS
Demat accounts for securities entail an account opening charge as well as an annual maintenance fee. However Irda, in its circular, has categorically stated that, No cost of e-insurance (account) shall be collected from einsurance account holders, either by an insurance repository or an insurer.
This may, however, seem logical, given insurers expect substantial savings the printing charges, courier charges, etc, in long term.
ADVANTAGES
The basic advantage would be that you won't have to maintain policy papers for a long period. Besides, you could get a lien or borrow against a demat insurance policy much more easily as compared to physical policies. In case of a physical policy, you must first fill an application and send it to the insurer, who will forward it to the lender. While in case of demat policies, you can apply to the repository, who will instantly mark a lien against it and forward it to the lender. The former is a tedious process and could even take a month. However, in case on demat policies, it is much faster and could be done in as less as 24 hours.
Insurers also expect communication with the policyholders will greatly improve post the shift to a demat regime. The e-insurance account will function as a single point contact for the client. It is expected that he/she will be far more pro-active in this case, as communication for all policies can get impacted if he/she fails to provide the correct contact details.
The shift to the demat system may be hailed for the ease and convenience of operation. However, insurers feel it won't be easy, especially for the rural population or those not adept at technology.
Single account for all policies will help consolidate the insurance portfolio
Borrowing against a demat policy easier than borrowing against a policy in hard copy
Communication with insurer will improve as the account will serve as a single point contact
In case of a change of address, inform only the repository and not each insurer individually
US Banks Are Breaking Key Supports, signalling a bigger fall (Mike Larson)
Bank stocks have just crashed through key support zones ... broken down to new lows for the year ... and started on a beeline for their worst levels of 2010.
That's what my KBW Bank Index chart is showing you — in aces and spades. It's telling you that the 24 major banks it tracks — including Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan Chase — are getting slammed.
But this is more than just about banks. It's also a stark warning for other financial stocks, housing stocks, and ultimately, most of the U.S. stock market.
Why do bank stocks matter? Because banks are the heart and soul of our economy. They make the loans that consumers use to buy houses, cars, and computers. They provide the liquidity to businesses who want to finance inventories, build factories, and construct office towers.
Problem: They're loaded up with millions of foreclosed homes, lousy real estate loans, and other bad assets. Yes, the Fed managed to paper over the banks' problems for a while. But now, the jig is up. House prices have just set new lows, and the bust is back with a vengeance.
Many investors are going to lose fortunes ... just like they did the LAST few times bank stocks crashed. But YOU don't have to take this lying down! You can go on the offense.
What to Do
When blockbuster news like this explodes into the headlines, you really have only two choices: You can either run for cover or come out fighting and by doing so, grab huge profit potential.
The last time this happened, savvy investors who went on the offensive could have made fortunes with investments that are designed precisely for this situation.
Needless to say, not all investments can go up that far in such a short period of time. Nor can we go back in time to grab them now. But this next phase of the debt crisis is shaping up to be even worse than the last one.
The last phase impacted mostly consumers and corporations. This one is also impacting the U.S. government!
The last time, the government bailed out the failing companies. This time, the government itself seems to need a bailout of its own and there's no one on the entire planet rich enough to provide it.
Bryan Rich-A Global Recession Is On The Way
*Japan returned to recession last month. So did Denmark.
*Malaysia, Botswana, Ireland, Australia, Portugal and Norway all posted negative GDP growth in the most recent quarter.
*The euro zone, laden with insolvent countries, is growing at just 0.8 percent. And Germany, the star of the euro zone, is only growing at 1.5 percent — well below its trend growth.
*And there is an increasing likelihood that Europe is in store for a destabilizing economic shock — through a euro member sovereign debt default or a member departure from the monetary union. At best, euro-zone countries could get another extension to put off those aforementioned scenarios, through even more stifling austerity measures.
Given that backdrop, Europe could be quick to follow Japan and Denmark into recession.
As for the UK: The new coalition government came in last year slashing spending and raising taxes in order to curtail its bulging deficit. Yet its deficit has barely budged. Nor has its economy. In fact, it's flat lined for the past six months — no growth.
How about the Largest Economy in the World?
This was expected to be a gangbuster year for the U.S. recovery, many private economists were foreseeing above 4 percent growth — some estimates were as high as 5 percent. But it's turning out to be quite different …
The annualized growth for the first quarter is coming in at just 1.8 percent! That's not only well below expectations, but well below the country's historical growth trend, even following unprecedented government stimulus.
That was last quarter. This quarter is looking even worse …
- The U.S. housing market is at new post-bubble burst lows, exceeding the decline marked in the Great Depression.
- Manufacturing activity just recorded the worst slide since 1984.
- Confidence has plunged to six month lows.
- And employment growth has now slowed sharply.
At Least We Have China to Lean on, Right?
Not so fast.
Throughout the global financial crisis where more than 60 countries were simultaneously in recession, China's economy still put up solid — in some cases, eye popping — growth. Of course, it took the largest fiscal stimulus package in the world (relative to GDP) to produce that growth. But it was in China's direction where the rest of the world looked, to spearhead a global recovery.
This time, this downturn, China won't be there to open up the spigot of money on its economy. Nor will China have such easy money to spread around the world. Its economy is already overheated. That's why the Chinese have been in a fight to shut the spigot and mop up the money. And it's proving a difficult fight.
Moreover, this time a recession would be accompanied by a sovereign debt crisis that could make the fallout that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers look like just the opening act.
But the next wave of economic pain shouldn't take anyone by surprise. In fact, history shows us it's exactly what we should be expecting following a widespread synchronized global financial crisis and global recession … more booms, more busts, more shocks and a long bumpy road to recovery.
In sum: If the recent data is truly signaling another round of recession, and if the crisis in global sovereign debt does, in fact, play out according to history (i.e. defaults), then expect this round of economic downturn to be worse than the first. After all, the global government ammunition that created the first technical recovery has been all but exhausted.
With that scenario in mind, the answer on whether global investors should be in "risk-on" or "risk-off" mode is pretty simple.
The US Economy May Have Already Gone Into A Recession-Mike Larson
These were the ADP Employer Services figures, and the government's "official" data always differ somewhat. But ALL the latest numbers tell the same story: The job market is losing steam!
* Manufacturing activity is decelerating fast! The Institute for Supply Management's benchmark index plunged to 53.5 last month from 60.4 in April. That was the lowest reading in 20 months, and far worse than "experts" were looking for! The service sector index also tanked.
* Home prices are setting fresh lows! The S&P/Case-Shiller Index fell 3.6 percent in March. That year-over-year decline was the worst since November 2009, and it leaves prices in 20 top metropolitan areas at the lowest level in eight years.
Meanwhile, April housing starts plunged almost 11 percent and permit issuance dropped 4 percent … pending home sales just tanked 12 percent — far worse than the 1 percent decline economists were expecting … and industrial production ground to a halt in April, confounding economists who were looking for a gain.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote an op-ed back in August 2010 called "Welcome to the Recovery." Maybe he should have named it "Mission Accomplished" … because his starry-eyed optimism seems every bit as misguided as President Bush's a few years earlier.
Economy's Achilles Heel? It Was "Bought and Paid For" in Washington!
How could the economy possibly be weakening again, when we just officially emerged from recession two years ago? How could this possibly happen, when the Paul Krugmans of the world promised that if we just borrowed and spent a few gazillion dollars, everything would be peachy?
And how could we be staring down the barrel of a serious slowdown, when Fed officials like Ben Bernanke swore on a stack of bibles that quantitative easing would save the economy?
Because "bought and paid for" recoveries are inherently unstable and self-defeating! If governments and central banks could truly vanquish the business cycle by just printing, borrowing, and spending all they wanted with no consequences, wouldn't every single one of them have done it before?
The reality is, the economic and political fallout from borrowing and spending so much eventually becomes too much to bear— and you just can't do it anymore! I believe that's where we are now …
The $14.3 trillion debt ceiling is putting shackles on Congress and the administration. So are global creditors and ratings agencies, who are increasingly punishing nations that think they can run up huge deficits and debt burdens.
Meanwhile, the Fed's QE programs have wildly inflated commodity prices and jacked up our cost of living. But because the Fed can't print jobs and boost wages — only fuel speculation by pumping the asset markets full of easy money — we've hit a wall. The "real economy" can no longer support these artificially inflated "financial economy" prices.
Immediate Steps to Take!
First, if you haven't already taken some profits off the table on your long positions, please do so now. This is the time to pare down your risk levels, regardless of what you're hearing on CNBC.
Second, dump any stocks exposed to the weakest parts of the economy. That would include sectors like banking, construction, and retail.
NewsWire for 06-06-2011
| Fund | Type | Open Date | Close Date |
| Religare Nifty Exchange Traded (G) | Nifty ETF | 23-May-2011 | 06-Jun-2011 |
| JPMorgan JF Asean China Equity | Foreign FoF | 10-Jun-2011 | 24-Jun-2011 |
| Company Name | Ex-Date | Purpose |
| Surana Industries Limited | 6-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1.80 PER SHARE |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited | 6-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND |
| Sundram Fasteners Limited | 6-Jun-11 | 2ND INTERIM DIVIDEND |
| Axis Bank Limited | 8-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `14/- PER SHARE |
| Sonata Software Limited | 8-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1/- PER SHARE |
| Megasoft Limited | 8-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Automotive Stampings and Assemblies Limited | 9-Jun-11 | RIGHTS 5:9 @ PREMIUM ` 42 PER SHARE |
| Asian Paints Limited | 9-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `23.50 PER SHARE |
| Bata India Limited | 10-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `4/- PER SHARE |
| ITC Limited | 10-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND FINAL `2.80 AND SPECIAL `1.65 PER SHARE |
| Shriram Transport Finance Company Limited | 10-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND FINAL DIVIDEND-`4/- PER SHARE |
| Castrol India Limited | 13-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND `8 PER SHARE |
| MRO-TEK Limited | 14-Jun-11 | AGM/DIVIDEND |
| Navin Fluorine International Limited | 14-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `8.50 PER SHARE |
| Century Enka Limited | 15-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND ` 6.50 PER SHARE |
| Andhra Bank | 15-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `5.50 PER SHARE |
| Rain Commodities Limited | 15-Jun-11 | FACE VALUE SPLIT FROM `10/- TO `2/- |
| Syndicate Bank | 15-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `3.70 PER SHARE |
| Torrent Power Limited | 16-Jun-11 | FINAL DIVIDEND `3/- PER SHARE AND SPECIAL DIVIDEND `2.50 PER SHARE |
| Thangamayil Jewellery Limited | 16-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`1/- PER SHARE |
| Bharat Bijlee Limited | 16-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `25/- PER SHARE |
| Bank of Maharashtra | 16-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`2/- PER SHARE |
| Binani Cement Limited | 16-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND-`2.50 PER SHARE |
| JSW Energy Limited | 16-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1/- PER SHARE |
| Binani Industries Limited | 16-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING / DIVIDEND - `3/- PER SHARE |
| Punjab National Bank | 16-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `22/- PER SHARE |
| Kesoram Industries Limited | 17-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`3.25 PER SHARE |
| Corporation Bank | 17-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND `20 PER SHARE |
| Grindwell Norton Limited | 17-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND - `6/- PER SHARE |
| Kesar Terminals & Infrastructure Limited | 20-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`1/- PER SHARE |
| Zee Learn Limited | 20-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Patni Computer Systems Limited | 20-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Hotel Leela Venture Limited | 21-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `0.15 PER SHARE |
| Tata Sponge Iron Limited | 21-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND `8 PER SHARE |
| Zydus Wellness Limited | 22-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `4/- PER SHARE |
| Whirlpool of India Limited | 22-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Surana Corporation Limited | 22-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`1.80 PER SHARE |
| Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited | 22-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`9/- PER SHARE |
| Ajanta Pharma Limited | 23-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`5/- PER SHARE |
| Sobha Developers Limited | 23-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`3/- PER SHARE |
| Spentex Industries Limited | 23-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| ICSA (India) Limited | 24-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1.80 PER SHARE |
| Tata Investment Corporation Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Alstom Projects India Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `10/- PER SHARE |
| Bajaj Finserv Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1.25 PER SHARE |
| Tata Metaliks Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Bajaj Holdings & Investment Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `35/- PER SHARE |
| Wipro Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `4/- PER SHARE |
| Dabur India Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND - ` 0.65 PER SHARE |
| Atul Limited | 29-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `4.50 PER SHARE |
| Wyeth Limited | 30-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `7/- PER SHARE |
| IndusInd Bank Limited | 30-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `2/- PER SHARE |
| Sesa Goa Limited | 30-Jun-11 | DIVIDEND-`3.50 PER SHARE |
| Prism Cement Limited | 30-Jun-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Indian Overseas Bank | 4-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`5/- PER SHARE |
| Tata Steel Limited | 4-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND `12 PER SHARE |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited | 4-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `3.50 PER SHARE |
| Indo Rama Synthetics (India) Limited | 5-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1/- PER SHARE |
| TTK Prestige Limited | 5-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `12.50 PER SHARE |
| India Infoline Limited | 6-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Hindustan Media Ventures Limited | 6-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`1/- PER SHARE |
| Polaris Software Lab Limited | 7-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `4.50 PER SHARE |
| Cadila Healthcare Limited | 7-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `6.25 PER SHARE |
| Dish TV India Limited | 7-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited | 7-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `10/- PER SHARE |
| Electrosteel Steels Limited | 7-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Graphite India Limited | 7-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `3.50 PER SHARE |
| The Karnataka Bank Limited | 8-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `3/- PER SHARE |
| Hindustan Unilever Limited | 8-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `3.50 PER SHARE |
| EID Parry India Limited | 8-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| VST Industries Limited | 8-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`45/- PER SHARE |
| JSW Steel Limited | 11-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `12.25 PER SHARE |
| Crompton Greaves Limited | 11-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Mahindra Lifespace Developers Limited | 12-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `5/- PER SHARE |
| Vinyl Chemicals (India) Limited | 12-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/FINAL DIVIDEND `0.25 PER SHARE AND SPECIAL DIVIDEND `0.25 PER SHARE |
| Coromandel Engineering Company Limited | 12-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVDEND OF `2.50- PER SHARE |
| Kirloskar Industries Limited | 13-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `2.50 PER SHARE |
| Kirloskar Brothers Investments Limited | 13-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `2.50 PER SHARE |
| Tube Investments of India Limited | 13-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`1.50 PER SHARE |
| Hyderabad Industries Limited | 14-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING /DIVIDEND - `10 PER SHARE |
| Unichem Laboratories Limited | 14-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `2.80 PER SHARE |
| Godrej Properties Limited | 14-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`4.50 PER SHARE |
| Persistent Systems Limited | 14-Jul-11 | FINAL DIVIDEND-`1.50 PER SHARE |
| Balaji Amines Limited | 14-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `0.60 PER SHARE |
| Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited | 14-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `4/- PER SHARE |
| Rane Brake Lining Limited | 14-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`2/- PER SHARE |
| GKW Limited | 14-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Geometric Limited | 15-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1.20 PER SHARE |
| Eimco Elecon (India) Limited | 15-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`4/- PER SHARE |
| Gujarat Sidhee Cements Limited | 15-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Manali Petrochemical Limited | 15-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `0.50 PER SHARE |
| Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Limited | 18-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `3.50 PER SHARE |
| Hercules Hoists Limited | 18-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `3/- PER SHARE |
| HT Media Limited | 18-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`0.36 PER SHARE |
| Vinati Organics Limited | 19-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1.30 PER SHARE |
| Halonix Limited | 20-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts Limited | 20-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND - `2 PER SHARE |
| Asahi India Glass Limited | 20-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Apcotex Industries Limited | 20-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`7/- PER SHARE |
| Aurobindo Pharma Limited | 20-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1/- PER SHARE |
| Oriental Hotels Limited | 20-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `0.80 PER SHARE |
| WABCO-TVS (INDIA) Limited | 20-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `5/- PER SHARE |
| Finolex Cables Limited | 21-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `0.70 PER SHARE |
| Patspin India Limited | 21-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited | 21-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1.50 PER SHARE |
| Sundaram Brake Linings Limited | 21-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `4/- PER SHARE |
| GTN Textiles Limited | 21-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Greaves Cotton Limited | 22-Jul-11 | FINAL DIVIDEND - `0.70 PER SHARE |
| Carborundum Universal Limited | 22-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`1/- PER SHARE |
| Gandhi Special Tubes Limited | 22-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Uniply Industries Limited | 22-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING |
| Universal Cables Limited | 25-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `2/- PER SHARE |
| Apollo Tyres Limited | 26-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `0.50 PER SHARE |
| PTL Enterprises Limited | 26-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIVIDEND `1/- PER SHARE |
| Century Textiles & Industries Limited | 26-Jul-11 | ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND `5.50 PER SHARE |
| The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited | 27-Jul-11 | DIVIDEND-`4.50 PER SHARE |
