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Remain optimistic of future despite recent mkt slump: HUL



Remain optimistic of future despite recent mkt slump: HUL


Below is a verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What have you made of the recent pause in market growth?

A: Obviously the markets are slowing down a bit but they are still growing and if you look at a longer-term view of India. There is absolutely no question that we should be seeing some good growth coming here longer term. It is difficult to predict what's going to happen exactly in the next 6 months or the next one year. But we remain very optimistic about the future if you take it into the longer context.

Q: But what would you attribute this short term slowdown to and when you talk of the long term picture what is the sort of time horizon that you are looking at and what kind of growth can we expect?

A: The question really is when we talk about slowdown meaning the markets were growing very fast. The markets are still growing. The question is we are not growing at the rate at which they were growing, but we are still in growth markets. So the way to look at it is that going forward the consumer confidence is not shaken or anything and so in developing countries we have to be a little cautious about not interpreting 1% drop or 2% drop as suddenly something sort of dramatically changing.

Q: I want to talk to you about the sustainable living plan that's been put out by Unilever. You have a sustainability report that you put out annually, how different is this from that sustainability report and why did you feel the need to actually put this out?

A: This is a very comprehensive approach in terms of what we intend doing between now and 2020. If we can make our consumer take some small actions which individually may be a small action but collectively it can make a big difference. If you take for example what we are doing on say Surf Excel Quick Wash in India where the product has been formulated to save two buckets of water everyday, every time you wash your clothes you save two buckets of water.

It's greatly convenient in water stressed areas and generally I would say in the country. But importantly now multiply these two buckets of savings with the millions of consumers who are using our brands and see the impact it can make. From the time we buy the raw materials, to the time we convert it in our factories, to the time we distribute it, to the time it gets consumed and disposed we want to make sure that it is an end-to-end approach to reducing our environmental impact across the lifecycle of our operations or of our brands.


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Britannia-Branding Does Not Bring Money, Sell



Retain Sell. Britannia reported a fourth weak quarter in a row, with profit sliding more than 30% yoy; 2QFY11 profit dropped 49.8%. As its pricing power remains under pressure, we re-iterate a Sell on Britannia, with a target price of `313/share.

n Volume-led revenue growth. Britannia reported revenue growth of 27.5% yoy; volume growth of 20% and the remaining growth stemmed from price hikes. Consolidated revenue was up 26% yoy. Revenues of subsidiaries grew only 11% yoy.

n Lower EBITDA margin. EBITDA margin was 380bp lower yoy. Raw material cost as a percentage of net sales rose to 65.9% in 2QFY11 from 60.4% in 2QFY10. With a higher income-tax rate and increase in interest cost post-debenture issue, net profit was down 49.8% yoy. Consolidated net profit slipped 52%.

n Outlook. Though Britannia's revenue growth is intact, we believe its pricing power continues to be pressured. With the mounting competition, Britannia is unable to pass on the higher raw material prices to end-consumers. Further, as the subsidiaries continue to suffer losses, we are cautious about earnings growth ahead.

n Valuation and risks. We retain our Sell on Britannia, with a target price of `313, based on a target PE of 20x FY12e earnings. Our target PE is at a 25% premium to the 12-month forward Nifty PE. Upside risks are lower raw material prices and better pricing power


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ITC-BUY



Upgrade to Buy. With better-than-expected volume growth in cigarettes (flat vs. earlier expected -4%) and better performance by the other segments, we raise our FY12e net profit 26% and upgrade the stock to Buy from Sell with a target of `205 (`126 earlier).

n       Strong revenue growth. The company reported revenue growth of 16.5% yoyCigarettes revenue growth came in at 15%, with volume growth at ~1%. Revenue growth in Other FMCG and Hotels were 22% and 21% respectively. Agribusiness and Paper reported revenue growth of 22% and 17% respectively.

n       EBITDA margin slightly lower yoy. EBITDA margin was 120bp lower yoy on higher 'other expenditure'. EBIT margins of all segments, excl. Agribusiness, improved. Net profit growth stands at 23% due to higher 'other income' and lower taxes.

n       Change in estimates. To factor in the better-than-expected volume growth in cigarettes and the improving performance in the other segments, we raise our net profit estimates for FY11 and FY12 by 25% and 26% respectively. Also, we introduce FY13 estimates and expect earnings growth of 20%.

n       Valuation and risks. We value the stock at target of `205 (earlier `126), based on PE of 26x FY12e earnings. Our target PE is at a 50% premium to the 12-month forward Nifty PE, against the 30% average premium in the past five years. With higher-than-expected cigarette volumes and the better performance of the other segments, we expect the premium to expand. Risks: Higher raw material prices and tax hikes on cigarettes.


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