BULLS-BEARS -Nifty ahead of settlement-A.K.Prabhakar
Regards
A.K.Prabhakar
Equity Analyst
Nifty Near Support-INFRA Stock selling seen-A.K.Prabhakar
INFRA stocks which are already in pressure is seeing more negative news
Regards
A.K.Prabhakar
Equity Analyst
Remain optimistic of future despite recent mkt slump: HUL
Remain optimistic of future despite recent mkt slump: HUL
Below is a verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What have you made of the recent pause in market growth?
A: Obviously the markets are slowing down a bit but they are still growing and if you look at a longer-term view of India. There is absolutely no question that we should be seeing some good growth coming here longer term. It is difficult to predict what's going to happen exactly in the next 6 months or the next one year. But we remain very optimistic about the future if you take it into the longer context.
Q: But what would you attribute this short term slowdown to and when you talk of the long term picture what is the sort of time horizon that you are looking at and what kind of growth can we expect?
A: The question really is when we talk about slowdown meaning the markets were growing very fast. The markets are still growing. The question is we are not growing at the rate at which they were growing, but we are still in growth markets. So the way to look at it is that going forward the consumer confidence is not shaken or anything and so in developing countries we have to be a little cautious about not interpreting 1% drop or 2% drop as suddenly something sort of dramatically changing.
Q: I want to talk to you about the sustainable living plan that's been put out by Unilever. You have a sustainability report that you put out annually, how different is this from that sustainability report and why did you feel the need to actually put this out?
A: This is a very comprehensive approach in terms of what we intend doing between now and 2020. If we can make our consumer take some small actions which individually may be a small action but collectively it can make a big difference. If you take for example what we are doing on say Surf Excel Quick Wash in India where the product has been formulated to save two buckets of water everyday, every time you wash your clothes you save two buckets of water.
It's greatly convenient in water stressed areas and generally I would say in the country. But importantly now multiply these two buckets of savings with the millions of consumers who are using our brands and see the impact it can make. From the time we buy the raw materials, to the time we convert it in our factories, to the time we distribute it, to the time it gets consumed and disposed we want to make sure that it is an end-to-end approach to reducing our environmental impact across the lifecycle of our operations or of our brands.
NIFTY DAILY OUTLOOK NOV 18, 2010
Range: 5935-6045
Resistance: 6020-6045-6075
Support: 5965-5935-5910
Range: 12335-12720
Resistance: 12610-12665-12720
Support: 12445-12390-12335
Medium term: Up (5930)
Long term: Up (5500)
FII: 3157.02-3353.71= -196.69
DII: 1542.54-1092.95= +449.59
NIFTY ended down 130 points but our recommended USHER AGRO
NIFTY ended down 130 points but our recommended USHER
AGRO ended in GREEN and reached new HIGH at 99 levels this shows the strength !! NOW what are the next TARGETS of this scrip ???? this part is only for PAID MEMBERS..... Yesterday in PANIC our paid members bought WINDSOR MACHINES LTD at 97-98 levels and scrip ended at 101 levels..again in GREEN !! NOT to mention we had recommended this scrip few days ago at 69 levels which is on the verge of giving another 50% returns in few days..WANT PROOF CLICK HERE TO RECALL " In September qtr company reported good numbers with a turnover of Rs.64 Cr v/s Rs.47 Cr and a net profit of Rs.10 Cr v/s Rs.1.6 Cr . (tax not provided) " hence its a GREAT BUY at CMP and given another 50% returns in few months.....
JUST CHECK BELOW OUR HIDDEN GEMS PERFORMANCE of last one year and DECIDE for your self :
| Piramal Glass Ltd | October 2009 | 47 | 142 | 202% |
| Ennore Coke Ltd | November 2009 | 50 | 155 | 210% |
| Clutch Auto Ltd | December 2009 | 41 | 90 | 120% |
| Cera Sanitaryware Ltd | January 2009 | 220 | 384 | 75% |
| Ennore Coke Ltd | March 2010 | 79 | 155 | 96% |
| Concurrent (India) Infrastructure Ltd | April 2010 | 18 | 36 | 100% |
| Jai Balaji Industries Ltd | May 2010 | 200 | 332 | 66% |
| Precision Wires India Ltd | June 2010 | 115 | 147 | 28% |
| Kallam Spinning Mills Ltd | July 2010 | 40 | 72 | 80% |
| JHS Svendgaard Laboratories Ltd | August 2010 | 82 | 127 | 55% |
| Panama Petrochem Ltd | September 2010 | 265 | 313 | 20% |
Nifty:The Tug Of War
AS we expected last week, the Nifty's affair with a crucial 5000 mark was indeed brief. Even as there was a healthy roll over of 70% into the next series, the rise in the open interest of the October future on Friday was not encouraging. On the other hand, the Nifty's repeated rebound from just above 4900 highlights a rising importance of this level as a near term support. IN A QUANDARY: Even the progression in the options' open interest suggests that the encounter between the bulls and bears may be defied by the battle ring of 4900-5000. This is validated by the fact that October 5000 calls as well as 4900 puts held the maximum open interest for the respective sides as on Friday. Moreover, in the last two trading sessions, since the time the October series commenced, in-the-money 4900 calls as well as 5000 puts both added about 9.2 lakh shares in the open interest. Though the September series ended with a high Put Call Ratio (PCR) of about 2.5, the same for August series continued to fluctuate between 1.35 and 1.39. However, The PCR could uptick further as the series progresses. After hitting its 15 month high, the Nifty closed below its 5 Day Moving Average (DMA) for the first time in three weeks. During the week, it continued to take support from its 10 DMA (currently at 4936). As can be seen from the first chart, the importance of this short-term support is increased by a trendline emerging from July 2008 highs. JITTERY DOW: While the movement in Nifty showed signs of optimism, its big brother, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) seemed jittery through out the week. As on Thursday the US index had lost nearly 1% for the week and at the time of this article going to press it was trading well below its Thursday's close. After facing resistance by the trendline, which joins its highs since April 2009, it also closed below its 10 DMA after two weeks. Now the index is eyeing a support near 9600, closer to its 20 DMA. A LOOK BACK AT HISTORY: A breach of this support could intensify the nervousness among traders. It is observed that in the recent run, after every euphoric rise when a significant correction sets in, fears of a repeat of the market moves of the great depression of 1930s increase. The second chart shows that the plunge in Dow since October 2007 almost mirrored the index's fall in the earlier duration of the great depression. However the strong recovery (point B or March 2009) arrived much earlier in the latest cycle considering the number of trading days. This point onwards the upmoves in the recent cycle are of longer duration unlike the cycle of 1930s, when the recovery was short lived. The last week's declining streak of Dow appeared at the 535th trading day since the time of its bear market decline, similar to the turning point (e) of the cycle of 1930s that appeared at the 532nd day of the start of the plunge then. From this point onwards the Dow had lost another 43% in a span of 16 months. Though such a comparison brings in a dreadful depiction, one striking difference between the two cycles is the placement of points Bs and Es. During the great depression, while points (b) and (e) more or less coincided with each other in terms of the Dow's value, this time around these two points (B and E) are positioned at the extreme end of the rebound since March'09. VOLATILITY FIX: Besides a breach of 9600, what could help us identify the future of Dow is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (CBOE VIX). As we highlighted last week, since July'09 the VIX has made several failed attempt to move past 50 DMA. Also, the 20 DMA is more or less moving in tandem with 50 DMA from the start of September. The index's move will now be decided by either a divergence of these two DMAs or VIX's rises past them and towards its 100 DMA. FRESH TRADE: Last week we suggested initiating a short position in 5000-5020 range to benefit from the Nifty's decline towards 4890. Our call was based on our assessment that for a sustained rise past 5000 a considerable retracement could be essential. This week while we believe that the tussling forces near both 5000 and 4900 are equally strong, the Dow's behavior indicates that the retracement in Nifty could extend further. On this backdrop, we suggest building a short position in 4980-5000 for a move towards 4820, albeit with a closer stop above 5030.
Trading Call 10th June 2009
NIFTY : (4550.95) Today Nifty face resistance at 4620, if cross 4620 then goes up to 4650 and 4690. Nifty find support at 4490, if 4490 break then fall up to 4423 and 4350.
ABAN : (1145.35)
Buy Above 1145 target 1-1203, target 2-1261, stop loss 1114
Sell Below 1114 target 1-1056, target 2-996, stop loss 1145
ABB : (735.15)
Sell Below 730 target 1-713, target 2-687, stop loss 756
AXIS BANK : (726.05)
Sell Below 730 target 1-707, target 2-698, stop loss 753
WIPRO : (423.60)
Buy Above 423 target 1-440, target 2-456, stop loss 409
BEML : (939.25)
Sell Below 920 target 1-883, target 2-825, stop loss 945
ICICI BANK : (737.85)
Sell Below 725 target 1-712, target 2-694, stop loss 744
JSW STEEL : (555.10)
Sell Below 550 target 1-528, target 2-506, stop loss 560
SIEMENS : (486)
Sell Below 484 target 1-463, target 2-428, stop loss 500
STERLITE : (653.35)
Buy Above 655 target 1-672, target 2-690, stop loss 646
Sell Below 646 target 1-634, target 2-615, stop loss 655
THERMAX : (401.75)
Buy Above 402 target 1-413, target 2-420, stop loss 392
Sell Below 392 target 1-383, target 2-376, stop loss 402
TECH M : (744)
Buy Above 730 target 1-812, target 2-897, stop loss 710
Sell Below 710 target 1-690, target 2-623, stop loss 730
BARTRONICS : (159.05)
Buy Above 160 target 1-167, target 2-174, stop loss 153
INFOTECH ENT : (180.20)
Buy Above 180 target 1-190, target 2-198, stop loss 170
Out Look 11 - 15 May 2009 Indian Stock Markets
Nifty trin(Daily):. 1.73 (bearish)
Trend Indicators:.MACD:.Bullish RSI:.Bullish ADX:.Bullish
Overall:.
3715 is proving to be a strong resistance in Nifty and the daily charts for Nifty confirms a rangebound consolidation pattern before a big move. The mood is cautious and the market movers are on a wait and watch mode. On Friday we have seen sharp sell off in Nifty from the 3715 resistance level and Nifty finally ended the last session with almost 63 points loss at 3621 level. Fresh short building seen in Nifty future, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, DLF and HDFC Bank, fresh buying seen in JP Associates and ABAN whereas profit booking seen in Reliance, SBI and Reliance Capital.
---bse chart from caldaro.---here also 5 day rsi shows negative divergence.
---macd is also ready to give sell signal.
---but rsi is still at trendline support.
--rsi shows negative divergence so all longs should now needs to have proper hedge.--Nifty May future discount converted to premium of 2 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 1.3 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 3.89 cr)
--3600 puts had open interest of 32 lacs and 3800 calls had open interest of 36 lacs, so 3600 and 3800 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 57.02, increased by 4% suggests instability and uncertainity.
--US markets closed in green.
--Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY—LONG.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—3603.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—3707.
Weekly pivot levels of Nifty spot:
- R3 - 3970.70
- R2 - 3843.90
- R1 - 3732.30
- Pivot - 3605.50
- S1 - 3493.90
- S2 - 3367.10
- S3 - 3255.50
- R3 - 3822.10
- R2 - 3766.70
- R1 - 3693.70
- Pivot - 3638.30
- S1 - 3565.30
- S2 - 3509.90
- S3 - 3436.90
and at 3788 (200 Weekly MA). Daily RSI-2 is al 38.03, bearish, but weekly RSI-2 is at 98.08, super bullish. Even after the sell off of Friday, Nifty managed to close above its 5 DMA support. Till the 5 DMA support is intact in closing basis Nifty is not a positional sell and all upside targets towards 3800 remain intact. This week we will witness Election results, so all positional longs need to be offloaded in any rally towards 3715-3800 level. Also it will also be decided this week that whether we will be able to climb upto the peak of Everest (200 Weekly MA)?As a Nifty trading strategy tomorrow go long if Nifty breaks and sustains above the pivot level for targets of R1 and R2, and go short if Nifty breaks and sustains below S1 level for target of S2/S3. Keep a standard 25 points SL in all your intraday Nifty trades. On Friday my blog recommendation to short Nifty below the pivot level of 3664.40 for target of S1/S2 was bang on targets and Nifty found bottom around our S2 level only. Hopefully my readers were able to catch those valuable 75 Nifty points on the last sessions. Cheers
4 th May 2009 Out Look
--Nifty May future premium increased to 9 points so cost of carry increased..
--Nifty open interest decreased by 89 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 3.64 cr)
--3400 puts had open interest of 31 lacs(+13 lacs) and 3500 calls had open interest of 21 lacs(+5 lacs), so 3400 and 3500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 46.63, decreased by 4% suggests stability.
--Market wide rollover was 75.64 %, whereas rollover in Nifty
futures was 74.03 %.
--Reliance Communications , IFCI , DLF , Indian
Tobacco Company and Idea Cellular witnessed good
rollover in the next series.
---Unitech , ICICI Bank , Jaiprakash Associates
and Suzlon Energy witnessed poor rollover in the next
series.
--Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY—NEUTRAL.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—3384.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—3492.
Intraday Call Tips:
1)Buy:If it moves above 3470 mean Buy @ 3477 & sell @ 3507(30-Points)Stop loss @ 3462.
2)Shot:If it crosses Down 3455 mean shot @ 3450 & Buy @ 3390 (60-points)stop loss @ 3465.
3)Shot:If it crosses Down 3380 mean shot @ 3375 & Buy @ 3340 (35-points)stop loss @ 3390.
Maintain stop loss at Each 10 Points Positive or Negative of Nifty market to confirm profit every time.
About are not My Views on Market I have Integrated Approach of Different people together .
NSE REMOVES 50 STOCKS FROM F&O
CIRCULAR
Circular No. NSE/F&O/030/2009 April 21, 2009
Download No: NSE/FAOP/12296
Dear Members,
Exclusion of futures and options contracts in 50 securities
Members are advised to note that based on the stock selection/exclusion criteria as prescribed by SEBI vide circular SEBI/DNPD/CIR-31/2006/ dated September 22, 2006 and NSE circular No NSE/F&O/029/2009 dated April 21, 2009 contracts for new expiry months in the following securities will not be available for trading on expiry of existing contract months.
Sr No
Symbol
Security
1
3IINFOTECH
3i Infotech Limited
2
ALOKTEXT
Alok Industries Limited
3
AMTEKAUTO
Amtek Auto Ltd
4
APTECHT
Aptech Limited
5
ARVIND
Arvind Limited
6
BALAJITELE
Balaji Telefilms Ltd.
7
BALLARPUR
Ballarpur Industries Limited
8
BATAINDIA
Bata India Ltd
9
BIRLACORPN
Birla Corporation Ltd
10
BOMDYEING
Bombay Dyeing & Mfg Co. Ltd
11
CENTRALBK
Central Bank of India
12
DCB
Development Credit Bank Limited
13
EDELWEISS
Edelweiss Capital Limited
14
ESCORTS
Escorts Ltd
15
EVERONN
Everonn Systems India Limited
16
GDL
Gateway Distriparks Limited
17
GITANJALI
Gitanjali Gems Limited
18
GNFC
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizer Co. Ltd.
19
GUJALKALI
Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd.
20
HAVELLS
Havells India Limited
21
HCL-INSYS
HCL Infosystems Ltd
22
HINDOILEXP
Hindustan Oil Exploration Co. Ltd
23
IRB
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited
24
JETAIRWAYS
Jet Airways (India) Ltd.
25
JSL
JSL Limited
26
KESORAMIND
Kesoram Industries Ltd.
27
KSK
KSK Energy Ventures Limited
28
KTKBANK
The Karnataka Bank Limited
29
LAXMIMACH
Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd.
30
MAHLIFE
Mahindra Lifespace Developers Limited
31
MAHSEAMLES
Maharashtra Seamless Ltd
32
MINDTREE
MindTree Limited
33
MONNETISPA
Monnet Ispat Ltd
34
MRF
MRF Ltd.
35
NBVENTURES
Nava Bharat Ventures Limited
36
NDTV
New Delhi Television Limited
37
NETWORK18
Network 18 Fincap Limited
38
NIITLTD
NIIT Limited
39
PENINLAND
Peninsula Land Limited
40
RAJESHEXPO
Rajesh Exports Ltd.
41
RIIL
Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Limited
42
SKUMARSYNF
S. Kumars Nationwide Ltd
43
SREINTFIN
SREI Infrastructure Finance Limited
44
SRF
SRF Ltd.
45
STAR
Strides Arcolab Limited
46
THERMAX
Thermax Ltd
47
TORNTPOWER
Torrent Power Limited
48
TVSMOTOR
TVS Motor Company Limited
49
UTVSOF
UTV Software Communications Limited
50
WOCKPHARMA
Wockhardt Limited
However, the existing unexpired contracts for the month of and April, May and June 2009 would continue to be available for trading till their respective expiry and new strikes would also be introduced in these existing contract months.
This circular shall be effective from May 4, 2009.
For and on behalf of
National Stock Exchange of India Limited
Positive Divergence in Nifty 5 Min charts
SELL NIFTY BLW 33#3 TGT 3329,
NSE removes 50 more stocks from F&O segment
The NSE also announced fresh eligibility criteria for inclusion in F&O segment. The conditions are that the stock would be chosen from among the top 500 stocks in terms of average daily market capitalisation and average daily traded value in the previous six months on a rolling basis; the stock's median quarter sigma order size (the average of the median buying and selling price) over the last six months should be not less than Rs 5 lakh; the market wide position limit (MWPL) in the stock should not be less than Rs 100 crore.
For an existing F&O stock, the continued eligibility criteria is that market wide position limit in the stock should not be less than Rs 60 crore and stock's median quarter-sigma order size over the last six months should be not less than Rs 2 lakh.
NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE OF INDIA LTD.
FUTURES & OPTIONS SEGMENT
CIRCULAR
Circular No. NSE/F&O/030/2009 April 21, 2009
Download No: NSE/FAOP/12296
Dear Members,
Exclusion of futures and options contracts in 50 securities
Members are advised to note that based on the stock selection/exclusion criteria as prescribed by SEBI vide circular SEBI/DNPD/CIR-31/2006/ dated September 22, 2006 and NSE circular No NSE/F&O/029/2009 dated April 21, 2009 contracts for new expiry months in the following securities will not be available for trading on expiry of existing contract months.
| Sr No | Symbol | Security |
| 1 | 3IINFOTECH | 3i Infotech Limited |
| 2 | ALOKTEXT | Alok Industries Limited |
| 3 | AMTEKAUTO | Amtek Auto Ltd |
| 4 | APTECHT | Aptech Limited |
| 5 | ARVIND | Arvind Limited |
| 6 | BALAJITELE | Balaji Telefilms Ltd. |
| 7 | BALLARPUR | Ballarpur Industries Limited |
| 8 | BATAINDIA | Bata India Ltd |
| 9 | BIRLACORPN | Birla Corporation Ltd |
| 10 | BOMDYEING | Bombay Dyeing & Mfg Co. Ltd |
| 11 | CENTRALBK | Central Bank of India |
| 12 | DCB | Development Credit Bank Limited |
| 13 | EDELWEISS | Edelweiss Capital Limited |
| 14 | ESCORTS | Escorts Ltd |
| 15 | EVERONN | Everonn Systems India Limited |
| 16 | GDL | Gateway Distriparks Limited |
| 17 | GITANJALI | Gitanjali Gems Limited |
| 18 | GNFC | Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizer Co. Ltd. |
| 19 | GUJALKALI | Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd. |
| 20 | HAVELLS | Havells India Limited |
| 21 | HCL-INSYS | HCL Infosystems Ltd |
| 22 | HINDOILEXP | Hindustan Oil Exploration Co. Ltd |
| 23 | IRB | IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited |
| 24 | JETAIRWAYS | Jet Airways (India) Ltd. |
| 25 | JSL | JSL Limited |
| 26 | KESORAMIND | Kesoram Industries Ltd. |
| 27 | KSK | KSK Energy Ventures Limited |
| 28 | KTKBANK | The Karnataka Bank Limited |
| 29 | LAXMIMACH | Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. |
| 30 | MAHLIFE | Mahindra Lifespace Developers Limited |
| 31 | MAHSEAMLES | Maharashtra Seamless Ltd |
| 32 | MINDTREE | MindTree Limited |
| 33 | MONNETISPA | Monnet Ispat Ltd |
| 34 | MRF | MRF Ltd. |
| 35 | NBVENTURES | Nava Bharat Ventures Limited |
| 36 | NDTV | New Delhi Television Limited |
| 37 | NETWORK18 | Network 18 Fincap Limited |
| 38 | NIITLTD | NIIT Limited |
| 39 | PENINLAND | Peninsula Land Limited |
| 40 | RAJESHEXPO | Rajesh Exports Ltd. |
| 41 | RIIL | Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Limited |
| 42 | SKUMARSYNF | S. Kumars Nationwide Ltd |
| 43 | SREINTFIN | SREI Infrastructure Finance Limited |
| 44 | SRF | SRF Ltd. |
| 45 | STAR | Strides Arcolab Limited |
| 46 | THERMAX | Thermax Ltd |
| 47 | TORNTPOWER | Torrent Power Limited |
| 48 | TVSMOTOR | TVS Motor Company Limited |
| 49 | UTVSOF | UTV Software Communications Limited |
| 50 | WOCKPHARMA | Wockhardt Limited |
However, the existing unexpired contracts for the month of and April, May and June 2009 would continue to be available for trading till their respective expiry and new strikes would also be introduced in these existing contract months.
This circular shall be effective from May 4, 2009.
For and on behalf of
National Stock Exchange of India Limited
Suprabhat Lala
Asst. Vice President
