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Research Reports Nov 2011 on Sugar Syn
Research Reports Nov 2011 on Sugar Syn
What are the financial instruments in ...
• Debentures,
• Preference Shares And
• Equity Shares.
Debentures
Stockyard 100th: The Centenary Issue--Special
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Happy learning......
100th Special Issue
NIFTY DAILY OUTLOOK DEC 10, 2010
On Thursday, market opened flat and started falling step by step down however market faced heavy selling pressure during final hour of trading session with selling across all indices and closed down in red. Overall it was a highly volatile trading session. Volume for the day was higher then previous trading session. Market breadth was negative. Midcap and Small caps index closed down in red.
For the day, the level of 5750 and 5725 may act as a major support for the market and the level of 5810 and 5836 may act as a major hurdle. Market may remain highly volatile.
"Spot Levels" Day trader can go long on nifty above 5810 with stop loss 5780 for target 5835 / 5870 and can go short below 5750 with stop loss 5780 for target 5725 / 5690.
Positional short recommended above the level of 6000 and added more below the level of 5930 hit target 1 of 5845, can book 40% of the short position at market and hold remaining position with stop loss of 5845 closing basis on nifty spot for targets 5625 and 5410.
Index Range
Nifty: 5766.50
Range: 5690-5870
Resistance: 5810-5835-5870
Support: 5750-5725-5690
Bank Nifty: 11116
Range: 10830-11375
Resistance: 11160-11265-11375
Support: 11045-10935-10830
Short term: Down (5930)
Medium term: Down (6030)
Long term: Up (5350)
Cash Market Trading Activity (Prov. Figure in Rs. Crores)
Cat: Buy Val - Sell Val= Net Val
FII: 3726.39-5022.69= -1296.3
DII: 2235.40-1407.48= +827.92
All Above Spot Levels
REGARDS
ABHIVANDAN NAGIA
ABN STOCKS & TRADING IDEAS
Daily Insight: There is disillusionment with realty companies
Real estate is a cesspool of dishonesty and criminality….
The cesspool that is realty
Buyers pay the price of developers' and mortgage officials' malfeasance
It could just be a coincidence, but the pace at which business-related scams are surfacing now is quite amazing. In a matter of weeks, not only has the long-simmering telecom scam come to a boil, we also have a brand new real estate loan scam on our hands. While the telecom scam has been widely known for a while and is of active interest in political and media circles, the real estate scam has immediate investment implications.
The BSE Realty index hit a recent high on October 6 and is down about 30 per cent since then. The decline has actually been much sharper in an even shorter period since then. This index is down about 26 per cent since November 9th. Even apart from the scam, realty stocks go into a free fall at any sign of weakness, and this has been the case for a long time now.
Clearly, investors have no trust in these stocks. And with good reason too, as this scandal demonstrates. Even though the exact contours of the loan scam are not yet clear, the broad framework is obvious. There are many, many real estate outfits to whom all legitimate means of financing are closed. No investor in his right mind would subscribe to their IPOs. And after the horrors of October 2008, no lender would touch them either. Or perhaps I should say lenders who are worried about getting their money back would not touch them. Lenders who have been bribed are obviously a different matter.
The net effect has been that real estate companies have managed to get their hands on lines of credit to which they shouldn't have access. They have managed to sustain criminally high prices and simulate (not stimulate) demand because they had this money to play with. Even in the worst of times, even when equity financing and most legitimate debt financing has been closed to them, they have managed to hang on to assets instead of having to sell them at realistic prices. The final impact has been on the buyer who has either not been able to buy a house, or has had to pay much more than he should have.
For investors, this episode is yet another chapter in the continued disillusionment with realty companies. I've suspected all along — and I've been saying this often enough — that there's some sort of a genetic problem with realty companies. I think this stands confirmed. There's a lethal combination of many elements at work here. The starting point is the huge overhang of housing shortage that has built up over decades. Add to that the tremendous demand unleashed by rising incomes and aspirations for a better lifestyle. Add to that the ease with which wealth can be generated by government actions like land-use change. Add to that the ability to sink vast quantities of unaccountable cash. Add to that an utter lack of any regulatory framework.
One would have to be a complete fool to expect any sort of an honest business environment to emerge out of this mess. Real estate is a cesspool of dishonesty and criminality and the circumstances are such that it will remain so. Investors are welcome to dabble in it — weaving their holdings in and out of scrips as the good and bad news flows and ebbs. Sure, there might be some clean and investment worthy realty stocks out there — but you need to get real about your chances of finding them and making money out of them.
-- Dhirendra Kumar
When SEs and Sebi Have Back-Up Data On Trading Patterns Of All, Why Do Regulators React So Late?
Ketan Parekh has been banned from trading in securities from December 2003 till 2017, but by all accounts Mr Parekh has been very active in the market all these years.
Most amazingly, the government's own intelligence wing is regularly tracking his trades and sending the reports to senior-most government officials. These reports are drawn up every month and sent to SS Menon, national security advisor; TKA Nair, principal secretary to the prime minister; KM Chandrashekhar, cabinet secretary; GK Pillai, secretary, ministry of home affairs; and Ashok Chawla, secretary, finance ministry.
Strangely, there has been no regulatory action against Mr Parekh so far, even after his involvement has been widely reported by the media. This raises the question, why top officials of this country who have enormous powers to investigate and harass small businesses and even tax-payers who are senior citizens, are so benign about Mr Parekh's illegal trading even when they are being briefed every month about his enormous purchases and sales?
Another equally important question is whether the market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) knows about these activities? Moneylife asked SEBI whether it has been briefed about Mr Parekh's activities, but has not received any reply so far. It would be stunning indeed if all the top officials and the regulator maintain a don't-hear-evil-don't-see-evil attitude, even as they sermonise about what is ethical and moral on various issues in the securities market.
We learn from Intelligence Bureau sources that their monthly briefing reports routinely reach the regulators in some form. The intelligence reports a few months ago documented that "using various front entities" Mr Parekh was active in Orchid Chemicals, GMR Infrastructure, Cairn India, Deccan Chronicle, Reliance Industries, Punj Lloyd, India Bulls Real Estate, Pipavav Shipyard, MVL, Amtek Auto, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Camson Biotechnologies, Crew Bos Products, UCO Bank, East India Hotels, State Bank of India, OCL India, Kemrock Industries, Tatia Global Ventures and JSW Steel. Further, KP has apparently "sold his holdings in HPCL and BPCL" in August.
Interestingly, Mr Parekh was also supposedly active in SKS Microfinance, "having taken up the share price from Rs850 to around Rs1,100." The report also adds that "KP using his Kolkata-based associate, Ashok Poddar, held a big position (5-6 lakh shares) in Parsvanath Developers. The report also informs the top government officials that "associates of Mr Parekh, such as Dinesh Singhania and Raj Aggarwal, contemplated modalities for IPOs, wherein cartel members would secure 50% of IPO proceeds from promoters of unknown or fringe companies. In this context, the IPO of Aster Silicates was discussed." Apparently, Mr Parekh is using a Chennai-based broking firm, Shri Ram Insight Share Brokers for his trading.
According to the reports, associates of Mr Parekh were involved in manipulating the Microsec IPO, both in its pre- and post-listing stages. "The gameplan included pre-listing short selling at Rs36 in the grey market, multiple retail and HNI applications through proxies, benami demat accounts and instant selling of the allotment on the day of listing to keep the price below Rs34 levels. Anticipating panic-selling by regular shareholders, the cartel members proposed to mop up shares and subsequently orchestrate a sustained hike through circular trading. Further, the cartel was also involved in the IPO grey market relating to Eros International Media, VA Tech Wabag and Carrier Point Infosystems."
A few months ago, Mr Parekh also planned to buy 60 million shares of Amtek Auto, alternately on the National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange. In June, the intelligence sleuths found Mr Parekh active on the counters of Dish TV, Piramal Healthcare, Pipavav Shipyard and Housing Development Finance Corporation.
Interestingly, Mr Parekh and his associates "were involved in market operations to raise funds in Temptation Foods. The plan included a cash transfer of Rs3.5 crore from one associate (DS) to another (GM) in return for which, GM was to issue a cheque worth one crore to Temptation Foods as application money for 14 lakh shares. While the normal preferential allotment of 14 lakh shares was to be at Rs36 per share, these were to be given at Rs30 per share to GM. Subsequently, KP and associates planned to hike up the shares of Temptation Foods, with the understanding that they would receive 50% of the profit. In the event of a loss, the promoter was expected to make good the losses by providing cash to GM through DS."
It may be recalled that Vinit Kumar, the present owner of Temptation Foods, was recently identified as being an ally of home ministry official Ravi Inder Singh, who was arrested for leaking out sensitive information to companies, and which also led to further revelations in the telecom scam. Vinit Kumar is said to have played a big role in the scandal.
Active K-20 stocks
Orchid Chemicals,
GMR Infrastructure,
Cairn India,
Deccan Chronicle,
Reliance Industries,
Punj Lloyd,
India Bulls Real Estate,
Pipavav Shipyard,
MVL,
Amtek Auto,
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company,
Camson Biotechnologies,
Crew Bos Products,
UCO Bank,
East India Hotels,
State Bank of India,
OCL India,
Kemrock Industries,
Tatia Global Ventures and
JSW Steel
Railway bonds will earn you a tax-free...
The finance ministry on Monday approved issue of bonds by railways worth Rs 5,000 crore for the financial year ending March 31, 2010.
The bonds will be issued by Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC), which will be tax-free, secured, redeemable and non-convertible, carrying an interest rate in the range of 6.5% to 7.25% per annum. The bonds will be available in the form of public issue.
In another order, the government approved notification of 10 years zero-coupon Bhavishya Nirman Bonds of National Bank of Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), again to be issued in this financial year. The number of bonds approved for issue are 95,20,000 with maturity value of Rs 20,000, each having life period of 10 years. Income on such bonds will be taxed only on maturity as capital gain.
IRFC bonds will create a good opportunity for investors in the high tax band. First of all, these are government-guaranteed bonds so there is no chance of default. In fact, in certain term, it is safer than bank deposits.
Besides this, the rates of return offered by the bonds are very attractive. According to a simple calculation, a 6.5% tax free return will be equivalent to 9.28% pre-tax return, which is a very handsome rate.
The highest return offered by five year fixed deposits of bank is around 8%. If one has to pay tax at the rate of 30% of the income, the net interest rate — in case the bane is offering a rate of 8% — would be only 5.6%.
But the other rate at 7.25% offered by the IRFC bond will be even more attractive. The 7.25% tax free return will be equivalent to 10.28% pre tax return. Presently, this is better than investing in debt mutual fund. The average return offered by debt mutual fund in 5 year is 7.75%. The return from the government securities in five year is even less at around 6.4%.
Central registry of mortgaged houses
In case of home loans, banks are entitled to mortgage of the property. The mortgage is normally either in the form of equitable mortgage or deposit of title deeds. The mortgage deed is not registered or noted in the records of any revenue authority. As such, the mortgage details are not reflected in revenue records. As a result, the encumbrance certificate issued by a subregistrar will not be able to highlight an existing mortgage. Moreover, the search certificate issued by an advocate won't be able to include this either.
One of the major reasons behind bad loans in mortgages is cases where a borrower takes a loan from more than one lender using duplicate documents. Sometimes, loans are taken for the same property from different sources, using duplicate documents.
The National Housing Bank (NHB) and the Credit Information Bureau of India Ltd (CIBIL) have joined hands to set up a central registry of mortgaged houses. Home loan defaults are expected to drop sharply with this move.
The repository was set up with a database of around six lakhs borrowal accounts compiled from 25 entities commercial banks and housing finance companies - and is expected to help lenders take an informed lending decision. The database accounts for a significant chunk of loan accounts in the country. Presently, the CIBIL database is accessible to only member organisations.
According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) database, there were around 5.7 million borrowal accounts with commercial banks in the country as on March 2009. With the increase in defaults in the housing sector due to duplicate sales deeds etc, CIBIL's mortgage check will enable more informed decisions while assessing new mortgage loan applications as well as better portfolio management. The comprehensive reference database will contain information on properties that owners have availed loans on, summaries of those loans, and open and close dates. The move is a part of the initiative to improve infrastructure in the housing finance market. As the home loan market evolves, there is a need to create appropriate infrastructure.
The NHB is also pushing for mandatory registration of equitable mortgages. This would increase the cost of home loans as lenders would have to pay a stamp duty which is related to the property value. The stamp duty is in turn recovered from the borrower. The NHB is also working with 10 major banks in the country to set up a central mortgage repository which will have electronic registration of mortgages, and will be mandatory for everybody.
Now, CIBIL has introduced mortgage check, in association with NHB. The mortgage check will contain information on property mortgaged to various banks, and details of existing loans and comprehensive information on such property. Mortgage check is an electronic database posted on the website of CIBIL.
Authorised persons from member organisations (banks) will be able to access the database to check a property for which loan is applied for. This will help lenders share and access mortgage information and contain bad transactions. In case the details of the property match with the database, the loan application will be declined.
This will help both the buyer and the lender as it would enable detection of fraudulent transactions.
IPO Review: A2Z Maintenance & Engineer...
A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services (A2Z), in which renowned investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds about 21 per cent stake (on pre-IPO capital), has come out with an IPO to fund its growth plans. While the company is present in some of the promising businesses, lack of experience in new businesses, intense competition, heavy dependence on ongoing capex for future growth, the highly working capital intensive nature of its businesses and expensive IPO pricing need investors' attention.
A2Z's main business includes the EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) work for the power transmission and distribution (T&D) sector from where it drives almost 92 per cent of its revenue. On the back of opportunities in the sector, this segment has clocked athreefold jump in revenue during the last two years. The company has in-house capabilities in the business and enjoys relatively high operating margins. Its strong order book of `1,292 crore, which is more than one time its FY10 revenue, and opportunities in the T&D space should ensure healthy growth in the near future.
Pillars of growth
Apart from the power T&D sector, the company is also working towards growing in other segments. It has ventured into the renewable energy and municipal solid waste management businesses. Both these businesses hold a promising future on the back of large opportunities in India. Through the proceeds of the issue of `675 crore (excluding the `187 crore offer for sale by existing investors), the company intends to invest in these businesses. For instance, in municipal solid waste management, the company has already made significant progress. It has a total capacity of 5,198 tonnes per day and has presence in several cities in UP, MP, Bihar, West Bengal and J&K. In the renewable energy space, the company has plans for about 145 Mw of generation capacity based on different fuels such as sugar bagasse, rice husk and biomass, most of which the company claims it will commission during 2011. The revenue from these two segments is expected to start accruing over the next two years. Also, due to expectations of relatively higher margins (about 45-50 per cent), they will make a larger contribution to A2Z's net profit and overall growth.
Valuations
On the basis of the existing businesses and the annualised financials of the company, the price to earnings works out to 29 times and price to book 2.5 times, which is very expensive. However, if we account for the revenue and profits coming from the new businesses over the next 2-3 years, the valuations seem reasonable. But, in that case the risk — in terms of execution of these projects and flow of revenues and profits — will remain with the investors. Investors with a high risk appetite and patience may apply. Offer opens on December 8, closes December 10.--
What is a moat?
From a stock market investor's perspective, one warfare-related term that is significant is "moat". Legendary investor Warren Buffet uses it widely and is perhaps responsible for both the word and the concept behind it gaining wide currency within the investment world. He once said: "The most important thing to me is figuring out how big a moat there is around the business. What I love, of course, is a big castle and a big moat with piranhas and crocodiles."
What is a moat?
A moat is a deep and wide ditch filled with water which surrounds a castle, building or town. In medieval times, the moat served as the preliminary line of defence against the enemy.
Often, before investing in a business, investors look at the company's historic performance. If over the last five years, earnings per share (EPS) has grown at a robust pace, investors invest in that company's stock, believing that the company will manage to grow its EPS at a similar (or perhaps slightly lower) rate over the next five years as well. This often proves to be a mistake. The reason: it's the very nature of capitalism that if a company makes excess profits in a certain line of business, its success attracts competitors. As competition increases, the supernormal rate of profit gets eroded. But there are companies that have been highly profitable for long periods. What accounts for their prolonged success? The answer is that a company can continue to earn supernormal profits for a long period if it possesses an economic moat, or a source of sustainable competitive advantage. Thus, economic moat is a metaphorical way of referring to the competitive advantage that a company has over its industry rivals.
Just as a moat protected a medieval castle, similarly an economic moat is a barrier that protects a firm's profits against competitive pressures. Ideally a firm would like to have an economic moat that is both deep and wide. When a firm enjoys a deep economic moat, its margins and hence its profits are high every year. And when a firm's economic moat is wide, its profitability remains intact for a long period. When, for instance, a competitive advantage is based on technology, the economic moat is usually deep (profits are very high each year) but not wide (a rival soon comes up with a product based on a superior technology and takes market share away).
Thus, when investing in a stock, look for companies that possess deep and wide economic moats. In fact, this should be the most important qualitative criterion on the basis of which you should select stocks.
Types of economic moats
A company can employ one or a combination of the following ways to sustain its competitive advantage:
Ø Product differentiation;
Ø Branding; low price;
Ø Locking in customers; and
Ø Locking out competitors.
Product differentiation: A company can capture a disproportionately large market share by launching a product that boasts of a superior technology that it rivals do not possess, and features that they can't replicate. Usually these innovative products are launched at a premium price, which makes them very profitable. There is no dearth of customers willing to pay more in order to get their hands on products with the latest technology and the best features.
The problem with this kind of competitive advantage is that it is usually short-lived. Technology is constantly advancing. Today's market leader can quickly become tomorrow's laggard. In fields such as information technology and electronics, competitors are churning out superior products at ever faster rates and obsolescence levels are high. It is for this reason that celebrated money managers like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch famously refuse to invest in high-tech companies.
Branding. A more lasting way to build competitive advantage is by developing a powerful brand, which is why companies are willing to spend enormous amounts on brand-building activities. Their aim is to deliver the message to their target audience that their products or services are better than those of their competitors.
In India Thums Up is a powerful brand. When Coca Cola bought Thums Up, it underestimated the power of this brand and tried to push Coke instead. It was only when Coke failed to make quick inroads into the Indian market that it realised its mistake. For once it made an exception to its global rule and decided to have two brands within the cola segment.
The continued success of Coca Cola Company is itself a testimony to a brand's ability to provide unmatched competitive advantage to a company for centuries. After all, anyone can manufacture and sell a carbonated drink. Then why has Coca Cola remained successful for centuries?
Designer labels for apparels and accessories also demonstrate the power of branding. Customers willingly pay a premium for branded apparels than for a similar unbranded item. Take the example of Tiffany's or our very own Tanishq. People willingly pay a premium for these jewellery brands.
Remember that branding is primarily about perception. So long as people perceive that a particular brand offers superior value, they will be willing to pay a premium for it, irrespective of whether it truly does or not. The value of a brand is in fact measured in terms of the premium that customers are willing to pay for it vis-à-vis the commodity version of the same product. By boosting a company's profit margins brands can create deep and wide economic moats.
However, branding does not work in all industries. Especially in high-tech industries (electronics, computers, etc) customers are guided more by technical specifications and product features than by branding. For instance, Sony has a powerful brand and it was also the inventor of the Walkman (the first individualised music player). But today's youngster covets an Apple ipod. Tomorrow if another company comes out with a better product that offers superior value, customers will switch loyalty at the drop of a hat.
Low price. Offering the same or a similar product or service at a lower price can be a powerful economic moat. Cost advantages are created by either inventing a better process or by achieving larger scale.
Dell is an example of how a better process can reduce costs. Dell's PCs are built only after purchase orders are received. This way Dell avoids stocking up on inventory (thereby lowering its working capital requirement). This is especially beneficial within the computer industry where the value of inventory erodes very fast. At the same time, Dell is able to take advantage of any decrease in the price of PC components.
Players who achieve scale also enjoy a powerful competitive advantage. Their fixed cost per unit is lower, so they can sell at a lower price. Their lower price in turn gets them more customers, thereby creating a virtuous cycle that is hard for competitors to match.
However, the low-price advantage is also difficult to sustain over a long period of time.
Locking in customers. Companies can deter customers from switching to competitors' products by creating high switching costs. This cost need not only be in terms of money; time is often a more powerful deterrent. If the customer has to undergo significant amount of training and incur lost productivity during the training period, he will be reluctant to switch. For instance, Adobe's software such as Photoshop and Illustrator are the ones on which most designers hone their skills during their training period. For them to shift to another design software would require the investment of time and effort. Unless the gains from such a switch are substantive, they would be reluctant to switch. The more tightly integrated a company's products are with a customer's business processes, the more difficult it is for the latter to switch.
Locking out competitors. Companies can also create a powerful economic moat by locking out the competition using tools such as patents and intellectual property rights which protect their owners from direct competition for a given period of time. Innovator companies within the pharmaceutical industry use patents to earn huge profits (while the patent lasts).
Licences are another means through which competitors can be locked out. Since the number of people to whom the government gives the licence is limited, the competition in such spheres is also limited. That means outsized profits for the licence holders. In the US, for instance, a limited number of licences are given for running cabs in New York, because of which these licenses are highly prized. When hunting for good investment prospects, look for companies that have a solid track record of growth and profitability. Then ask yourself: what are the characteristics that have enabled this company to earn sustained profits over such a long period of time? If you look closely, you will find that the business possesses one or the other of the economic moats described above. Then ask yourself: will this economic moat survive in future also or will it be breached by competitors? If the answer is yes, go ahead and invest in its stock.
More Tax Gains with Infrastructure Bonds
Infrastructure bonds are the latest avenue for investors looking to park funds in debt instruments. A number of companies have announced plans to raise money through this route. While IFCI has already raised `100 crore, this is the first time after additional tax breaks for investments in infrastructure bonds were announced that an amount over 4,000 crore is being raised. While IDFC and L&T Infrastructure issues are open for subscription, PFC and LIC are the next in line. Here's a snapshot of what these issues have in store for investors.
Tax benefits
Under Section 80CCF, any individual or Hindu undivided family can invest up to `20,000 in infrastructure bonds and avail of tax benefits. This will be over the `1-lakh deduction allowed under Section 80C. So, an investor in the tax bracket of 30 per cent can save an additional `6,000, while those in the lower tax bracket can save `2,000.
Moreover, infrastructure bonds offer stability of fixed returns and are reasonably safe.
How they compare
Other high yielding instruments which help save tax, include employee provident fund (returning 9.5 per cent for financial year 2011), public provident funds (8 per cent) and five-year fixed deposits. PPF gives higher returns that are non-taxable although liquidity is not as good as the bond or a fixed deposit. Unlike PPF and EPF, interest income is taxable for infrastructure bonds. A debt mutual fund gives good returns, don't get any tax breaks and are more risky. According to Value Research, a mutual fund rating agency, debt oriented hybrid funds have returned 10.68 per cent in the last one year. While the returns on EPF and PPF are higher, infrastructure bonds score over instruments like post office schemes which give similar returns but don't have tax benefits. The key benefits for the investors in infrastructure bonds are breaks on the `20,000 additional investment, higher yields and good liquidity.
Liquidity
The infrastructure bonds have a maturity of 10 years but a lock-in period of five years. The investor can ask the issuer to buy back his/her bonds after the lock-in period. Alternatively, the investor can choose to trade these in stock exchanges. Listing is more to do with being more tradeable on exchanges and there may not be any listing gains. Historically, retail bonds trade at par on exchanges. Trading done on exchanges will not be eligible for tax benefits as it will not meet the five-year lock-in requirement. However, investors looking to clock some gains can subscribe to bonds in addition to `20,000 and trade in such excess units. Historically, volumes have been thin in retail bonds trading and we don't expect much trading activity in these bonds.
Such bonds are an attractive option for those in the high tax bracketInterest rate effect on fixed maturity...
INTEREST rates are on the upswing in the economy and investors need to be alert about the impact that this will have on their debt mutual fund investments.
One area that investors need to keep an eye out for is that of fixed maturity plans (FMPs) that are being launched by various mutual funds on a regular basis.
These are funds that have a specified maturity date and are close-ended in nature, so investors are aware about the life of the investment at the time of putting their money in it.
In this sense, it is vital that the investors have a clear strategy outlined to consider these funds and here are some features that will be helpful for them.
Popular periods: There are quite a few FMPs that are being launched by mutual fund houses in the market.
A look at several such offering gives a clear idea about the time period that is being chosen by the mutual fund houses for their funds. The time periods include 100 days, 180 days, 370 days and 15 month offerings as many fund houses have come out with these options. The investor has to understand that these will represent the exact time period for which their money will remain with the fund after which the fund will be terminated. The fund with a time period of 370 days ensures that it goes well above 12 months that qualifies it as a long-term capital asset which can be beneficial on the tax front.
Listing: The other important thing that an investor will experience when they are investing into such funds is that after the initial time period for the investment is over there will still be a liquidity option available for them.
Earlier, the investor could redeem the units with the fund by paying a penalty in the form of an exit load.
This is not possible in such funds, since it will not be redeemable till the end of the time period of the fund. To compensate for this, there will be a listing on the stock exchange that the fund will have to undertake and thus this opens up a window for the investor to get their money out.
However, in reality, the actual ability to transact will depend upon the number of transactions that take place. This will have to be witnessed as there are chances that even though there is a route it is not widely used.
Time period: There is also an initial time period for which the subscription is open for investment. This is where the investor has to be careful because they might not have a lot of time available for making the investment. This is especially true as in the case of many FMPs the fund keeps the investment open for only a few days -sometimes only for a couple of days -and hence the investor has to be quick in making the investment.
In some offerings there is a time period of around a week for which the subscription is possible so there is ample time that is available for investments.
No indicative yield: Now the mutual funds and the intermediaries who distribute the funds cannot show or tell investors about the indicative yield that the fund will actually earn.
Earlier, this practice was rampant and this is not possible now. But an investor who wants to have some idea about the kind of return that is being earned there is a way out which is to estimate the returns themselves. Since investors are not experts in the field, these calculations will be just estimates. Also there is no portfolio available for viewing as the funds will be invested only after the issue closes so this route is also not possible.
What is Deven Choksey betting on?
Though midcap and smallcap stocks are being brutally beaten up on the bourses, Deven Choksey of KR Choksey Securities still feels that there is steam left.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Choksey said, "Some of these companies are genuine and I would rather go out and select some of the companies on merit basis."
He suggests buying stocks like IDBI Bank,ICICI Bank and IRB Infra .
"We believe that most of these banks have also got their advance financial solutions (AFS) portfolio mark at 8% so mark to market also is not going to affect them beyond a point. From all this point of view and valuations along with we believe that some of these banks would be definitely good choice though we don't have many selections among the smaller size PSU banks.," he explained.
Here is the verbatim transcript of his comments on CNBC-TV18.
Q: What have you made of the fairly significant falls that we have seen in midcaps and smallcaps this week? Are you tempted to buy or do you think there could be more purging in that space?
A: I think midcaps and smallcaps certainly selectively demands some amount of buying for sure. The issue which has happened is slightly a structural in my viewpoint. What we are seeing is this kind of carnage happening in midcap, smallcaps is largely the fallout of the kind of offloading of stocks by some of the lenders of the promoters who had borrowed this money from them for their use in company or otherwise and that is where the larger amount of fallout is taking place. Why this fallout took place? I think one needs to understand that aspect of it.
The point is that midcaps and smallcaps have never been attracting higher amount of liquidity so the lender would always remain uncomfortable and in a market like this where the enquiries and enquiries would start one after another probably they would not feel comfortable, they would dump the stock so ultimately it triggers higher amount of sale.
What is essentially required at the regulatory level probably is that create a separate exchange for midcap and smallcaps, allow market making within that and probably these issues can get settled but that's a broader issue. In my view some of the names which are getting involved at this point – its not very easy to quantify them saying that they all have been involved in doing some malpractices.
In my view some of these companies are genuine and I would rather go out and select some of the companies on merit basis and buy them of course from the list within I don't have many to talk on anyway but some of the midcap companies because of this particular reason which have come down, they does demand the kind of buying opportunity at current levels.
Q: There has been a correction in the overall market and PSU banks have corrected quite a bit. That's a space that you have liked for a while. What stocks would you be comfortable with at these levels?
A: I think some of the PSU banks are definitely doing well and are likely to do well in current scenario. Fortunately they are not as expensive as State Bank of India kind of bank is trading at 2-2.2 times forward price to book value basis and some of the other banks like IDBI Bank which is trading at less than 1.5 times price to book value basis even if you factor into account the kind of possibility of rise in the interest rate, possibility of some amount of shrinkage into the NIMs of the banks going forward.
But let us also understand that with the higher amount of infrastructure activity continuing and some of these banks participating into it they do get higher amount of fee based income as well in this particular space and that is where we feel more comfortable about likes of IDBI Bank and for that matter even ICICI within the private sector for investment in our portfolio. We believe that most of these banks have also got their advance financial solutions (AFS) portfolio mark at 8% so mark to market also is not going to affect them beyond a point.
From all this point of view and valuations along with we believe that some of these banks would be definitely good choice though we don't have many selections among the smaller size PSU banks.
Q: What about the overall texture of the market, how much more do you think we could correct? Do you think the levels of 5,300-5,400 could be tested as soon as December?
A: I don't know. I think index levels probably expecting, that kind of a sharp correction, may not materialise because if you look at the fabric of the market the likes of ONGC which is coming out with the FPO probably with those kind of tricks that they want to play along with the FPO, likes of for that matter Reliance which is unlikely to fall given the kind of USD 90 per bbl crude oil prices and likes of Infosys which would remain in safe haven for most of the people to park their funds.
So if they end up supporting the market then possibly you may not see a large cut into the indices. What is more worrisome is the large cut happening in some of these stocks which are going down very significantly and that includes some of the banking names also, that is little bit more worrisome. I do not see market falling that sharply and probably I would believe that 5,750-5,800 kind of levels definitely support the market.
Today at least I believe that the market should have some amount of bounce back effect from yesterday and day before yesterday's fall. I don't think there is too much of a fall. I think one can expect on the situation.
Q: Many of the stocks from the infrastructure basket saw a significant amount of correction; the likes of HCC, GMR Infra even IRB Infra that's been tainted to some extent. Is there anything from that space that looks attractive from a medium-term perspective?
A: Yes, to be counting on safer side we like companies like IRB, ITNL which is IL&FS Infrastructure who are basically engaged into road model and the collection of toll as well as BoT projects.
I think both these companies are very well set as far as their execution spree is concerned probably they are also not as much troubled by many of other infrastructure companies like HCC are concerned on the environmental clearance etc though they may have the tendency of delaying the projects because of non-clearance come in but road sector is not finding as much kind of a resistance coming from any corner.
So from that point of view IRB and ITNL kind of a company could be a better choice to have in the portfolio and would these companies are available too at reasonably attractive valuations so from that point of view one can certainly look at both of them adding into the portfolio.
Q: How do you see the rest of the December series panning out? Do you think we will still hold a tight range of 5,800 to 6,100 and not see a big December in that sense?
A: Most likely. It's going to be around this week maybe 5,800-6,100 or 5,900-6,200. It's a subject, which we cannot predict, but more importantly what was expected out of this particular months and that's what something which one would look forward to is that the inflow starts coming back into the market. Now when you look at the broader perspective the inflows are unlikely to come back in hurry, more because the structural issue that the European levels are still not settled and as a result of this people are not predicting or not confident about dollar movement either and that is the reason for which that keeping tight on bringing that kind of a money to the market.
Of course the domestic sentiments got affected because of the recent past history but the fact is that people are still clear about it that India story continue and these are some of hurdles which one will have to face when the growth happens in this country. So the money is expected to come which is not yet seen coming in and that is where one is not feeling comfortable predicting the Nifty at this point of time.
Yes, I would bet on it that it would remain range bound between 5,900-6,200 levels. I think with the improvement in the liquidity certainly one can look forward to the higher levels.
Q: What about ONGC? It's been a one way upmove for ONGC since Rs 1,220 levels that it had touched and all the positive news leading to the FPO. You expect to see it surge the more from here?
A: Not having that much of confidence from this particular subject because the FPO is coming. So one is expecting the price to remain to supportive and at the same time whatever the tricks that they play around which is higher dividend etc which if at all it comes that could bring the sentiment up again for this kind of a stock but larger point of view if you look at it you still don't get the clarity on the subsidy front. You would increase the prices of petroleum products particularly petrol, diesel I am not too sure again.
If they do increase at current USD 90 to crude probably you may see some amount of subsidy reduction of around 3-4% for ONGC but that's about it, I think that is where one will have to play around. So I am not too sure whether the upstream companies or the downstream companies demand a clear cut buy in the portfolio.
I would think that one can trade on an opportunity like this and probably get out. I am not sure whether it can even cross Rs 1,400 levels also probably it will hover around such prices.
Q: You were talking about the largecaps which might support the market now. You think Reliance and Infosys might be relative defensives even if the Nifty corrects from here?
A: Precisely, Reliance participated as much as we can think about has not participated in this particular market in the last almost one year plus period now. I think to a greater extent this stock is fully discounted whatever the negatives that one want to call it at this price. From that point of view it should be supporting the market. Infosys of course is supporting the market for sure and people are looking at it Infosys as a defensive play and a at the same time in some corner the calculations are also going on it at some point of time you would be seeing some amount of announcement coming in on the acquisition front.
Now that could possibly indeed trigger the stock price. So people are accumulating this stock and I have been seeing this particular portfolio action happening with some of the local funds as well.
Q: If its time to accumulate now in the midcap index, from these two spaces sugar and fertilisers, any stocks that you are eyeing?
A: I am not too comfortable with fertiliser but sugar do tend to agree that there would be some amount of positives going forward not that India is suggesting that particular growth momentum but global economies of the world—Brazil and Pakistan related issues is supporting the export for the sugar and that is where you should be seeing higher amount of yield coming.
If I have to put it this way for most of the sugar companies as far the realisation and the profits are concerned, but if one wants to take a larger call on the sugar maybe slightly in the next quarter one may start accumulating some part of sugar stock because you could probably time the market a bit more better than buying it now but not very sure that I would accumulate big time into the sugar even at current levels.
Q: From the auto space do you think the run is done on many of the stocks like Tata Motors and Maruti?
A: I would believe that Tata Motors kind of a company would attract buying at lower levels simply because the stock is available at a valuation for Rs 130-135 earnings per share that one is expecting for this year. It is available at a valuation which is quite attractively currently so from that point of view any fall warrant a buy into this particular counter and larger consumption theme continues in this country.
So maybe for some time you may have some amount of correction taking place, I would call it adjustment taking place into this place also because the there is possibility that some amount of price increase that these companies will have to take into account in this particular quarter and next quarter as well.
That is probably raising some concern but beyond a point I don't think that the bank rate would be much to this particular space even if it is increased by 25 bps. I think it is a selective buy which one will have to employ and place like Tata Motors would definitely give that kind of an opportunity in a falling market.
Q: Disappointed with the market opening, after three bad days at least a bit of a morning pullback was expected even that has not materialised. Has sentiment turned or is it just that the market does not have adequate flows to support it?
A: I think the latter is true, of course sentiment is affected for the reasons that we all know but it is more of a flow which is not coming into the market as we discussed earlier and some of the names like SBI are basically dragging the market down and to an extent it is disappointing more because there is a speculation that the SBI may come out with an offer at about Rs 2,000 and that is where most of the players are saying that if they are coming out with an offer at Rs 2,000 then probably this stock cannot enjoy this price which is at around Rs 2,750 as well.
That is the reason for which the market is giving a negative downside to SBI and SBI along with it saw other banks are also coming down for reasons best known to the market on that front at least but in my view because of this kind of issues probably the market is seeing this fall maybe we will have to pass through this phase, maybe we will have to have this kind of a correction getting completed and some of the stock would give that opportunity at lower levels.
One need to have conviction on the fundamentals then one can buy some of these stocks and as you rightly said that it is not the time to go out and buy everything that on go probably accumulate at regular level and enjoy portfolio building in such space because subsequent quarters could give that kind of an opportunity on a bounce back as well where you can enjoy lower purchase and more profits thereafter.
3 midcap stocks SP Tulsian says you shouldn't miss out on
3 midcap stocks SP Tulsian says you shouldn't miss out on
Investment advisor SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com believes the recent SEBI order against the promoters of pipe manufacturer Welspun Corp will prove to be a blessing in disguise for the company. "I don't think that there is any problem—maybe some of the instances of the involvement of the promoters may have happened but the business model of the company is quite intact," he said adding, "This might be the much-awaited entry point for investors."
Commenting on his next pick, Tulsian says, Century Textiles can prove to be a good bet as he thinks the stock is greatly undervalued at current levels. "If somebody can keep a view of maybe couple of years, this should give a good return," he feels.
Tulsian is also upbeat on the prospects of Indian Bank. "My call on Indian Bank is purely from a short-term point of view—maybe for next couple of months—one can look for a return of about 10% from hereon," he explains.
Below is a verbatim transcript of Tulsian comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Do you think Welspun Corp has bottomed out at these levels of Rs 150 or so and what kind of a target do you have on the stock?
A: The recent scam or the involvement of the company's name has given investors an opportunity—I have been maintaining that view since it has corrected to Rs 160. If I straightaway go onto the fundamentals of the company, I don't think that there is any problem—maybe some of the instances of the involvement of the promoters may have happened but the business model of the company is quite intact. You are going to see a topline of close to Rs 9,000 crore for FY11 with a cash profit in excess of or maybe close to about Rs 1,000 crore. That results into an EPS of Rs 40. We all know that the company is the largest pipe maker having global presence and even their order book is quite intact with order book of about maybe Rs 6,000-6,500 crore. Yesterday also we have seen company having received an order of about Rs 1,500 crore.
They have an order pipeline of about eight-10 months. They have the good presence in the developed market in US and all. So I don't think that there is any reason if you get a stock at a P/E multiple of close to about 4-4.5 times with a marketcap of just less than Rs 3,500 crore and even if you see on the debt front, the company has a net debt of about close to about Rs 700 crore. Even that can get paid off—in fact I see this SEBI move as a positive factor for the stock because right now there won't be any kind of dilution of the equity or any price movement. In fact, maybe the regulatory or the corporate governance at the company's level will improve.
So all these things maybe if I take a call that it can become a debt-free company in next one year or so with a P/E multiple of 4.5—this is the time where one should look to pick up this stock.
Q: You also like Century Textiles. Take us through why you like that story and whether it is undervalued at current market price?
A: In this uncertain market, because obviously I have tried to focus on the companies, which have a relatively good cash flow, intact business model, plus backed by the rich assets. Welspun Corp falls in that category on the same logic along with Century Textiles. We all know that they have a strong presence in cement, paper, textile, rayon, chemicals.
In cement they have a sizeable capacity of 9 million tonne; in paper they have 2 lakh tonne per anum plant. I am not giving any value—if I just take a financial performance, they will be having a topline of close to Rs 4,500-5,000 crore for FY11 with an EPS of quite close to about Rs 40 and cash EPS of about Rs 65. If I take purely on the financials and share is ruling at a P/E multiple of 10, which is in fact in line with other cement majors which have a similar capacity of 10 million tonne and above and they are in the process of expanding the cement capacity also.
But if I purely confine or focus myself on the property, which they are developing in Mumbai at Worli—they have close to about 40 lakh square feet of which part is under development, maybe some of the area is in dispute with Wadias—but if I take the net present value of the clear property, which is lying with the company, the net present value is close to about Rs 5,000 crore while the marketcap of the company is right now at Rs 4,000 crore with enterprise value of close to about Rs 5,000 crore because company doesn't have significant debt. It is close to about Rs 1,000 crore. The management has hinted that entire property which they will be developing over next three-four years is going to get leased out and if that happens, maybe 3-4 years down the line company will be having a rental income of close to about Rs 1,200-1,500 crore with the ownership of the entire property remaining with the company.
We have been taking call on the real estate stocks but they are in the process of selling the property, booking the profit but here companies will continue to enjoy the rental income. Company is going to keep the ownership of the company with the core business of cement, paper and textile remaining with the company. I see this stock hugely undervalued at close to about Rs 415-420, where it is now ruling. If somebody can keep a view of maybe couple of years, this should give a good return.
Q: Indian Bank has had quite a terrific run in the last one year or so though it has corrected a little bit. At these levels, do you think it looks attractive?
A: Maybe the disappointment came from the Q2 results and in the recent one week we have seen that all the banks, especially these midcap banks, have corrected by about 14-15% because of the fear of their NIM getting shrunk or maybe because the banks are forced to but I don't think that this is going to be such a serious problem because banks have raised the deposit rates by 100-150 bps largely on the short-term deposits, which ranges for about three months or so.
If I straightaway take a call on Indian Bank, they have the second highest—in fact I place in the midcap PSU banks, there are about 10-12 midcap PSU banks—they have the second highest NIM of close to about 3.7% against the average of 3.3% in case of other banks. So even if that shrinkage happens, I don't think this is going to be such a big disappointment for the stock.
Coming on the financial performance, they have an EPS of close to about 40 for FY11. They will be having a book value of about Rs 195 by March 2011. So taking P/E multiple call which is at about 6-6.5 times and price to book of 1.3 times, I think Indian Bank doesn't deserve much beating from hereon and if we have any indications coming in from the banks of increase in their benchmark prime lending rates (BPLR)—these all stocks can show a rise in the near-term as well. So my call on Indian Bank is purely from a short-term point of view—maybe for next couple of months—one can look for a return of about 10% from hereon.
Q: What about oil and gas specifically for ONGC? There is some news floating around as well on account of which ONGC has held up pretty smartly. Do you see that stock inching up higher?
A: I don't think that it is likely to move maybe beyond Rs 1,360 or Rs 1,380 but yes all the preparations are made by the government to have its FPO through and for that we are seeing this special dividend announcements, bonus and now even the dispute with Cairn on the royalty front is also likely to get resolved.
So maybe I don't think that there is any weakness for the stock falling below Rs 1,300 but I don't think that it can move beyond Rs 1,380 as well atleast in the month of December.
Q: What did you make of the Uflex episode yesterday? The Chairman is going to jail out there; stock tanked 20%. How would you approach it?
A: It is a very unfortunate incident and if you see the kind of rise we have seen in all these polyester film stocks, the kind of run up we have seen in Uflex also—apart from this incidents of Chairman awarded jail term of 4 years—you question the financial results having posted by these companies also because we have seen that maybe the call being taken on all these stocks with an expected EPS of close to Rs 200-300 per share with a profit of even the management of Uflex came on the channel and said that they are doing exceedingly well and they are going to see these kind of profits.
Now it reminds you that probably maybe the vested interest of the price manipulation on the stock exchange seems to be their intention. You need to examine all these results especially of these midcap stocks which are either driven by the management or by the operator with the magnifying glass.
Q: Do you expect the pressure on names like Karuturi, KS Oils, Murli Industries to remain? You were speaking about Welspun Corp, which is a good business, but some of these other two-digit kind of stocks—do you think they will remain under pressure?
A: It all depends because one needs to segregate these all stocks because if you see the fundamentals, maybe if I need to take a call on Sangam India, I don't think that there is much fall but if I need to take Murli Industries, I don't think that the much fall is likely because we know that we have the company backed by the assets and all.
But I have my doubts on the stocks like Karuturi Global, Midfield Industries, Thinksoft, maybe Shree Ashtavinayak, these kind of stocks are not having any business model, they have all been seen involved in the price manipulation. One cannot generalize the call, one needs to see the assets held by the company and the business model whether they can sustain the kind of performance, which they have been showing because obviously there will be doubt on the financial performance having posted by these companies also because they have all been done with a view to maintain the stock price.
So one has to be very careful but it is better and safe to avoid these midcap kinds of stocks where you have no clear visibility.
Q: Any thoughts on RPP Infra? The stock which listed a couple of days back, it has lost about 12-15%. Do you see it sliding more?
A: Yes, I think it deserves the fall of maybe about 30% more because I don't see value more than Rs 35 on the stock because we have the bigger players available at a quite attractive rate even after hearing the management, having order book of about Rs 800 crore and maybe the current performance and all that, does not justify price of more than Rs 35.
Q: A couple of these stocks saw a quite bit of beating yesterday. Would you look to accumulate at these levels—likes of IRB Infra perhaps or you spoke about Indian Bank but many other banks too like Dena Bank, Syndicate etc which saw some correction—any of these stocks that you like at these levels?
A: I am not negative from hereon on the banking stocks because as I said that all the stocks have seen a correction of 12-14% in this last one week and I think even if you factor in the deposit increase rate, which has largely been happening for the short-term deposit, it doesn't warrant this kind of correction.
So if I need to take a call maybe UCO Bank, Dena Bank, Indian Bank, these three stocks or maybe fourth Vijaya Bank looks quite good at these levels and overall my call is positive, I see a weakness of maybe about 1-2% on the banking stocks by and large but the chances of rise of about maybe 4-5% in this December series from hereon.
Q: What do you do with A2Z Maintenance—the issue which opens today? Would you buy it or let it pass?
A: I found this quite expensive at Rs 400-410 because if you see the present business model of the company, they are into the T&D but they have been more focusing themselves on the distribution front because on transmission you have the lower margin. Yes, they have done well on the distribution front but I think that maybe the saturation is coming up on that account. That is the reason we have seen that in spite of the growing topline they have seen the fall or stagnated EBITDA margin and now they have been focusing more on the scattered and the small business like the municipality waste management and the biomass power projects of 15 megawatt each at different locations.
These kinds of things are very difficult to manage. If I take a call on FY10 performance, the share is issued at a P/E multiple of 22-23 times. I don't think that it justifies and even if I take a call going forward for FY11, we may see an increase in the topline by about maybe 20-25% but the bottomline is going to disappoint with a fall in the EBITDA margin with fall in the PAT margin taking all this into consideration, I think the stock is quite expensive at Rs 400-410.
Q: What would you do with these two names, DCM which is down 20% today and Uflex down another 12%?
A: I think in Uflex you have couple of problems, one of the arrest of the CMD which we have talked just a while back and second is the fundamental call on the business because there has been drop in the film prices and even there has been ban on using the plastic films in Panparag and cigarette packaging and all that so that is going to keep the consumption down.
Coming on DCM, I don't think that there has been any clarity because the stock has been moving up largely because of the momentum play on the pretext of the company holding huge land bank in Delhi and all that. So maybe the stock is correcting because of that.
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