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Morning Brief

Stocks To Watch: Ranbaxy, Reliance Ind, SBI, Kingfisher Air

Wednesday, May 11 - Morning brief for the stock market:

BIG PICTURE

* EGoM on fuel defers Wed meet; may now convene on May 17 or May 18 (NW18)

TOP EVENTS TODAY

* Jan-Mar, 2010-11 (Apr-Mar) earnings to be detailed by:

ABB, Apollo Tyres, ARSS Infrastructure, Asian Granito, Arshiya International, Akzo Nobel, BF Utilities, Bhagwati Banquets, Deepak

Fertilizers, Grasim Industries, ICRA, JMC Projects, ITI, Ispat Industries, Kernex Microsystems, Kothari Sugars, Mcnally Bharat Engineering, Morarjee Textiles, Pioneer Embroideries, PTL Enterprises, Ruchi Infrastructure, SAL Steel, Sirpur Paper, Super Forgings, Sumeet Industries, TIPS Industries, Tanla Solutions, United Nilgiri, Usha Martin Education, Usha Martin, Venky's (India), and WS Industries.

* Annual General Meet of: Stovec Industries.

* Board Meetings of:

+ Asian Oilfield to mull oil, gas exploration JV with Oleum Energy.

+ Priyadarshini Spinning to mull fund-raising via share, warrant issue.

+ Rasoya Proteins to consider stock-split.

+ Usha Martin Education to mull fund raising options.

INDICATORS (previous session)

* NSE provisional net buy/(sale) in mln rupees, May 10: FII 250.2, DII 1,308.6

* Institutional net buy/(sale) in bln rupees, May 9: FIIs 2.43, MF (1.03)

* FII NSE futures net buy/(sale) in bln rupee, May 10: index 6.66, shr 1.53

* Sensex 18,512.77, down 16.19 points; Nifty 5,541.25, down 9.85 points

* Crude: $103.88/bbl; Rupee: 44.75/$1; Gold: $1,516.9/ounce; 10-yr yld: 8.2808%

OUTLOOK

* Share indices may open positive on firm cues from overseas equities, but selling on every rise may limit the upside. Corporate earnings will keep action stock specific.

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS

* US: Stocks ended up on Tuesday as robust earnings' forecasts by companies boosted investor sentiment.

* Asia: Asian indices were up in early trade as a rise in oil and metal prices boosted commodity shares and a weakening of the yen pushed of

exporters' shares.

IPO WATCH

* Galaxy Surfactants Ltd has set a price band of 325-340 rupees a share for its initial public offering of 5.93 mln shares, which opens on May 13.

* Power Finance Corp's 229.55-mln-share follow-on public offer received a tepid response on the first day, as just 9% of the issue got subscribed Tuesday.

SECTOR NEWS

* AUTOMOBILE: Heavy Industries minister Praful Patel seeks to rollback stiffer import duty on cars assembled from completely knocked down kits, asking for a two-year relief. (ToI)

Duty Entitlement Pass Book, the duty neutralisation scheme for exporters is likely to get extended for nine months. (ToI)

* DIVESTMENT: The government expects to raise half of the year's targeted divestment mop-up from stake sales in POWER FINANCE CORP, STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA, OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP, and HINDUSTAN COPPER.

* EXCHANGES: National Stock Exchange has deferred decision on inducting brokers on the board. (BS)

* GOVERNMENT: Multilateral funding agency World Bank has approved a $150 mln loan to India under the National e-Governance Plan.

The Central Board of Excise and Customs is against reduction in customs duty on crude oil, as the government may lose 230 bln rupees from the move. (ToI)
Union cabinet is set to discuss proposal to allow foreign direct investment in limited liability partnership firms. (ToI)

* OIL & GAS: State-run oil marketing companies seek oil minister Jaipal Reddy's support to raise petrol prices by 5-6 rupees a litre after the government deferred the Empowered Group of Ministers' meet on fuel pricing. (ET)

The government's move to divert gas supply from RELIANCE INDUSTRIES' KG-D6 field to power and fertiliser plants has hit output at Essar Steel and Jindal Ispat. (ET)

* POWER: Four Gujarat government-owned power distributors will increase tariffs by 10 paise per unit from May 1 on account of higher Fuel Price and Power Purchase Adjustment charges

* PRIVATE EQUITY: Mumbai-based Svasti Microfinance Pvt Ltd has raised 45 mln rupees from BlueOrchard Private Equity Fund for expanding its branch operations and developing loan products for low-income customers.

* REAL ESTATE: The Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation has sought the Ministry of Law's approval to change the Real Estate Draft Bill to central legislation. (BS)

* REGULATORY: SEBI is investigating into irregularities in several initial public offerings of the past one year that resulted in heavy losses to investors.

* RETAIL: Reliance Retail has reported total loss of 3.51 bln rupees in 2010-11 (Apr-Mar). (FC)

* TELECOM: State-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam and MAHANAGAR TELEPHONE NIGAM may get 25-30 bln rupees subsidy from the Department of Telecommunications. (BS)

* TEXTILES: The government has extended the anti-dumping duty on import of viscose filament yarn, commonly known as viscose rayon yarn, from China till Feb 24.

STOCKS

* ACC, AMBUJA CEMENTS: Holcim Group will not merge the two companies; will explore opportunities to improve footprint, efficiency. (BL)

* ADANI POWER: Aims to double generation capacity to 3,960 MW in the current financial year and sell at least three-quarters of the electricity through long-term agreements. (ET)

* APAR INDUSTRIES: Templeton Emerging Markets Group's private equity fund, Templeton Strategic Emerging Markets Fund III has invested $17.8 mln in the company.

* ASIAN PAINTS: Is investing 10 bln rupees in phase I of its new Khandala paint unit, which it expects to commission by end of 2012-13 (Apr-Mar).

* BHARAT HEAVY ELECTRICALS: Company, five others in race for NTPC's 180-bln-rupee order for supply of boilers and turbine generators. (Mint)

* BHUSHAN STEEL: Plans to start coal production from its Australian subsidiary Bowen Energy's mines in the next three-four years. (DNA)

* CAIRN INDIA: Government defers decision on Cairn-Vedanta deal yet again; Cairn Energy expects to get mandatory approvals by May 20. (var)

* COAL INDIA: Coal minister has asked the company to make its rehabilitation and resettlement policy for land acquisition more "attractive".

* DR REDDY'S LABORATORIES: Launches neutropenia drug pegfilgrastim in India.

* ELDER PHARMACEUTICALS: Jan-Mar consolidated net profit grew 3.3% to 173.6 mln rupees while net sales increased 60% on year to 3.03 bln rupees.

* EID PARRY: Parry Nutraceuticals is expanding its over-the-counter range of nutritional supplements. (BL)

* GOLKONDA ENGINEERING: To invest 400 mln rupees in cable business.

* INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK: Has raised its BPLR by 50 bps to 14.25%.

* INDIA SECURITIES: Its board has approved allotment of shares after Madras High Court sanctioned the scheme of amalgamation of Essar Telecommunications Holdings Pvt Ltd with the company.

* IVRCL ASSETS & HOLDINGS: Has achieved financial closure for the 17.06-bln-rupee Sion-Panvel state highway project in Maharashtra, by tying up with nine banks for funds.

* JUBILANT LIFE SCIENCES: Has earmarked capital expenditure of 5 bln rupees in the current financial year, and aims to achieve additional revenues of 12 bln rupees by 2012-13 when it will start using its full capacity.

* KINGFISHER AIRLINES: Mumbai International Airport warns of putting the company on the cash-and-carry basis if it fails to clear dues worth 1.1 bln rupees by May 25. (var)

* KRBL LTD: Pegs India's 2010-11 (Apr-mar) basmati exports to have fallen 2.2% to 3.13 mln tn due to lower demand from Europe and Saudi Arabia.

* MARICO: Has ended talks to buy majority stake in Australian cookie maker Unibic Biscuits India arm. (ET)

* MARUTI SUZUKI: Will house its design centre at its 10 bln-rupee facility in Rohtak and disengage from Suzuki Motors in designing. (FC)

* MCNALLY BHARAT: Janhit Seva Trust has reduced stake in the company to 2.40% from 12.05% by selling 3 mln shares to three promoter companies.

* NTPC: The Association of Power Producers has moved the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission to seek termination of additional power purchase agreements worth 38,000 mw signed by the company. (var)

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* POWER FINANCE CORP: Says government likely to invite bids for the Tamil Nadu Ultra Mega Power Project by July-end. (FC)

* RANBAXY LABORATORIES: Jan-Mar consolidated net profit fell 68.3% on year to 3.04 bln rupees, but beats estimates.

* RELIANCE INDUSTRIES: And partner Hardy Oil and Gas Plc have relinquished

nearly 25% of the exploration area in the D9 block of Krishna-Godavari basin,

to get an extension of six months for exploring the block. (NW18)

Three top executives AN Sethuraman, Shankar Adawal, and V Balasubramanium to face trial on charges of possessing classified government documents. (PTI)

* ROYAL ORCHID HOTELS: The Supreme Court has given approval to the company to build a new hotel in Vadodara. (ToI)

* SEAMEC LTD: Reported Jan-Mar net loss of 248.8 mln rupees, compared to 287.2 mln rupee loss recorded in the same period a year ago.

* SHASUN PHARMACEUTICALS: Said its Pondicherry unit staff have resorted to an illegal strike, but did not give more details.

* SHREE RENUKA SUGARS: Jan-Mar consolidated net profit fell 73.5% on year to 594 mln rupees.

* SKS MICROFINANCE: Plans to raise 50 bln rupees in 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) through bank loans, non-convertible debentures, and securitisation of loans.

* SOBHA DEVELOPERS: FY11 net profit increased 33% to 1.8 bln rupees, net sales increased 31% to 14.5 bln rupees.

* STATE BANK OF INDIA: Has hiked deposit rates by 75-225 bps with effect from Thursday. Has also hiked Base Rate by 75 bps to 9.25% and BPLR by 75 bps to 14%.

* STATE BANK OF MYSORE: Has revised its prime lending rate by 50 bps to 14.25%, and Base Rate by 50 bps to 9.5% with effect from Wednesday.

* TRIVENI ENGINEERING: Expects its sugar output for the current season ending September to be 420,000 tn, marginally higher than last year's production of 417,000-418,000 tn.

* VISHAL RETAIL: Plans to change its name to V2 Retail Ltd and enter real estate business. (PTI)

* WALCHAND PEOPLEFIRST: Has approved 10-for-1 stock split.

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Inflation & You

Inflation in emerging markets, including India, has been ruling high since for the past year. In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken some steps including tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates six times to control inflation. The inflation rate came down towards the second half of last year, but the price of food articles and some essential commodities have again started going up last month.

Food inflation touched a 52-week high level and analysts believe that it will soon spread to a broader basket of items and result in higher Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation.

These are some of the direct and indirect implications of a higher inflation rate:

Interest rate hardening

The RBI has already done multiple rounds of monetary policy tightening. The interest rates have already gone up a couple of percentage points across the board. It is quite likely RBI would have to further increase the interest rate in its policy review due towards the end of this month.

   For you, it means higher EMIs on your loans.

Impact on stock markets

The rise in inflation impacts market sentiments. Higher inflation helps in driving the interest rate higher and hence borrowing becomes costly, both from market or financial institutions. The valuation of capital-intensive companies and sectors comes under pressure as their margins decrease under higher interest burden. Therefore, higher inflation influences the outlook for interest-rate sensitive sectors in the stock market.

Commodity prices

The price of many essential and primary commodities has shot up many folds in the last few quarters. Food inflation has again hit the 20 percent mark. People of every income category are facing the brunt of rising prices.

Strategies to cope with inflation

High inflation is quite a complex situation and is unlikely to come under control in the near term. The implications of higher inflation are quite widespread, especially for the economically weaker sections of society. Uncontrolled inflation is actually destructive for a country as it de-stabilises the economy, as it leads to consumers and investors changing their spending habits.

   Here are some strategies you can adapt in the current situation:

Strategies for equity investors

Inflation influences market sentiments and investors should remain cautious as the valuations are quite high at the moment. In the absence of other positive factors, the market tends to come down due to these negative sentiments.
   In addition to the general market direction, investors should remain cautious on their positions in interest rate sensitive sectors.

Strategies for debt investors

Due to higher rate of inflation, most debt market instruments have become unattractive as real interest rate (interest rate after factoring the rate of inflation) has gone negative. Investors in debt instruments should exercise patience and diversify part of their debt into other instruments like gold and silver which have a better outlook in the short to medium terms.

Strategies for borrowers

The environment is quite bad for borrowers. Interest rates have gone up across the board and people with large loans are paying higher EMIs. Since higher interest rates are here to stay for some time, it is advisable to look for alternative sources of income or reduce the loan burden by partial prepayment.

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Ashok Leyland - Seasonally strong quarter ahead-RBS

Adjusted for one-off costs, 3Q was in line with our estimate. Now in its seasonally strong fourth quarter, Ashok Leyland seems on course to achieve its full-year

sales guidance, although there may be a small earnings impact from higher interest costs. We lower our EPS forecasts and TP slightly but maintain a Buy.

Results for 3Q in line, after adjusting for previous-year employee bonuses
Ashok Leyland saw 59% yoy and 74% qoq falls in reported PAT to Rs434m on 22.7% yoy growth in net sales in 3QFY11. However, adjusting for prior-period employee bonuses of Rs260m, normalised PAT was Rs694m, in line with our estimate of Rs701m, as higher EBITDA helped absorb an interest cost jump of 20% qoq. Net sales came in 5% above our forecast on the back of better-than-expected realisations, which rose 3.5% qoq, resulting in an EBITDA surprise of 8%.

Improved realisations helped EPS absorb higher interest expenses
The company's sales volumes declined sharply in October and November due to an upgrade in emission norms and supply chain issues, but started to recover from December onwards. We believe Ashok Leyland can clock a monthly run rate of over 10,000 vehicles to reach our FY11 sales volume estimate (which is down 1% vs earlier). However, improved price realisations in 3Q, along with the recent price hikes, negated the impact of a volume downgrade on our sales forecasts. We cut our FY11F-12F EPS 4-5% on higher interest expense forecasts, driven by an increase in the base rate.

Seasonally strong quarter ahead; Buy
We see 302% qoq EPS growth in a seasonally strong 4QFY11 as the worst seems to be over in terms of the emission norms impact. For FY12, we build in 18% EPS growth, which looks conservative given management guidance of 18% volume growth and additional monetary incentives that will likely accrue from the Uttaranchal plant. We see the recent sharp stock correction as a good short- to medium term opportunity to Buy. The EPS downgrade and a higher risk-free rate in our DCF valuation reduces our target price to Rs82.10 from Rs93.30. At our new target price, the stock would trade at 14.5x FY12F PE with an 18% EPS CAGR for FY11F-13F and a 0.57x debt-to-equity in FY11F.

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Hindustan Unilever - Q3FY11 EBITDA disappoints-RBS

HUVR reported a 7.9% decline in EBITDA, despite a 12% revenue growth. Volume growth at 13% has been strong. Soaps & detergents recorded a sharp 39% drop in EBIT, while personal products EBIT grew at 8%. The company has raised prices of soaps & detergents portfolio by 5% since Q3FY11.

Q3FY11 net sales growth 12%
􀀟 HUVR reported a net sales growth of 12%, which was driven a strong volume growth of 13%.The management indicated that there was double digit volume growth across all its categories, and its growth was above the market growth's indicating improvement in market shares. The personal products business grew at 20.1%, while the soaps & detergents business grew at 6%. This has been the fourth consequtive quarter of double-digit volume growth.

EBITDA declines by 7.9%, worse than expected.
􀀟 HUVR recorded a 310bps drop in margins y.o.y to 14.1% driven by 210bps rise in raw material cost to net sales, and 80bps rise in advertisement cost to net sales. The soaps and detergents business recorded 39% drop in EBIT, with margins dropping to its historic low levels at 7.7%. While, the sharp rise in inputs costs was the key factor for the same, we had anticipated that HUVR would have taken some forward covers for the same given its global sourcing skils. The company has taken up prices by 4-5% in soaps and detergents business in January 2011, which impact 4QFY11 earnings positively.

Buy back at max price of Rs280/shr or total Rs6.3bn, could act as support
􀀟 Post the management contact, we will review our earnings numbers to factor in the weaker than expected EBITDA margins. The base effect of EBITDA margins would turn favourable from Q4FY11 onwards, as it was in Q4FY10, that HUVR faced the sharp margin correction with EBITDA margins at 13.6%. We expect EBITDA growth to return to positive zone from the Q4FY11 onwards. The structural drivers remain intact i.e the company is witnessing improving market shares, and volume growth remain strong. High advertisement spends to correct 3-4 year period of market share losses, coupled with sustained high inflation in raw material prices have impacted margins.

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Tata Chemicals

Tata Chemicals (Rs 351.1): Sell

We recommend a sell in the stock of Tata Chemicals from a short-term perspective. It is seen from the charts of the stock that after encountering long-term resistance (May 2008's peak) around Rs 440 in October 2010, it changed direction and began to decline. This reversal was also triggered by negative divergence shown in daily moving average convergence divergence indicator as well as in weekly relative strength index. Since then, the stock has been on a medium-term downtrend. Reinforcing this downtrend, the stock tumbled 6 per cent with good volume penetrating a key immediate support around Rs 370 and its 200-day moving average at Rs 365 on January 27. The stock is hovering well below its 21 and 50-day moving averages. The daily RSI has entered in to the bearish zone from the neutral region and weekly RSI is slipping towards this zone. After signalling a sell, daily MADC has entered in the negative territory indicating downward momentum. We are bearish on the stock from a short-term perspective. We anticipate it to decline further until it touches our price target of Rs 340 or Rs 330 in the upcoming trading sessions. Short-term traders can consider selling the stock with stop-loss at Rs 356.

Yoganand D

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2011/01/28/stories/2011012850331400.htm

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Wipro

Wipro Technologies Inaugurates Mobile Computing Lab to Develop and Deploy Next-Generation Mobile Applications and Devices

Atlanta, Georgia, United States, Friday, January 28, 2011 -- (Business Wire India) -- Wipro Technologies, the global Consulting, System Integration and Outsourcing business of Wipro Limited (NYSE:WIT), today announced the launch and inauguration of its Mobile Computing Lab at its Atlanta Strategic Delivery Center in the United States. This mobile computing lab will enhance the engagement between Wipro, the local Atlanta community, its customers and its developer partners.

Wipro's Atlanta Delivery Center serves as a hub of near-shore solutions for IT business outsourcing processes. Established in late 2009, the center has grown to over 550 employees with at least 88% being local hires. Services provided from the center include Enterprise Applications Services, Enterprise Security Solutions. Business Process Outsourcing, Business Intelligence and Information Management, Technology Infrastructure Services, and Testing Services for clients in a range of industries including IT, Telecom, Banking, Financial Services, Manufacturing, Healthcare and Retail.

The addition of the Mobile Computing Lab will enable Wipro to provide subject matter expertise and end-to-end mobile application lifecycle management - from development, validation, testing to deployment, on new and next generation devices. The lab will bring together leading mobile technologies that help US carriers plan and manage new releases. New mobile applications and devices are critical to enhance user experience and to bolster the competitiveness of enterprises of all sizes.

"The launch of the Wipro mobile computing lab represents a milestone in our effort to build a mobile ecosystem to drive the development and launch of mobile applications and next-generation devices," said Sid Nair, Chief Sales and Operations Office - North America, Wipro Technologies. "It is also a demonstration of our commitment to the mobility market, and our commitment to the local Atlanta community," he added.

About Wipro Technologies

Wipro Technologies, a division of Wipro Limited (NYSE:WIT) is the first PCMM Level 5 and SEI CMM Level 5 certified global IT services organization. Wipro Technologies was recently assessed at Level 5 for CMMI V 1.2 across offshore and onsite development centers. Wipro is one of the largest product engineering and support service providers worldwide. Wipro provides comprehensive research and development services, IT solutions and services, including systems integration, information systems outsourcing, package implementation, software application management, and datacenter managed services to corporations globally. In the Indian market, Wipro is a leader in providing IT solutions and services for the corporate segment in India, offering system integration, network integration, software solutions and IT services.

Wipro also has a strong presence in niche market segments of consumer products and lighting. In the Asia-Pacific and Middle East markets, Wipro provides IT solutions and services for global corporations. Wipro's ADS' are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and its equity shares are listed in India on the Stock Exchange - Mumbai, and the National Stock Exchange.

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Dhanlakshmi Bank-Put On A Ratings Watch With Negative Implications

Dhanlaxmi Bank - Valuations Excessive For A Small Bank
We believe that slippages on key parameters like ROA and ROE, higher Opex cost outlay may not enable the bank to command premium. We have put the rating under review until there are indications of improvement in performance..

Dhanlaxmi have posted its Q3FY11 earning lower than our expectation, with Q3FY11 net profit at ~Rs72.6 mn a growth robust growth on account of lower base.

Balance Sheet growth of 73% Y0Y, with outperform industry growth by 3.2x and 4.7x for advanced and deposits respectively: Dhanlaxmi loan book registered strong 73% YoY growth led by TAG (SME segment) and retail sector. SME book expanded 5% sequentially (now constituting 20% of total loans vs. 15% in Q4FY10) while retail loan book grew 20% sequentially (now constituting 38% of loans vs. 16% in 4QFY10).

The bank intends to increase the retail and SME proportion of loan book to 30% each in FY11E with share of WBG (large corporate) expected to decline to 40% (38% in Q3FY11 vis a vis 58% in Q1FY11). We revised our CAGR growth target of 50% (as against 47%) FY10-12E. We revised our CASA estimate for the bank to 20% (earlier 22%).

Robust growth in Net interest income (88% YoY), with change in assets mix and curbing funding cost led to margin expansion: Robust NII growth of ~60% YoY and margin expansion of 10bps YoY and 20 bps sequentially on account of capital raise in Q2FY11 and curb in cost of funds on account of maintaining CASA.. We still believe that with the change in advance mix and benefit of QIP issuance to accrue in coming quarter on margin. So we maintain our thesis of improve in margin by 25 bps from current level of 2.6% by FY12E

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M&M Finance Gets A Downgrade-Cant Grow Your Book By 47% And Have Zero NPA's-Sell

M&M Finance-What If Value Compressed To 1X ABV from the present 2.5XABV; We could look at a Rs 250 stock

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFSL) result is lower than our estimate which is on account of RBI guidance to provide for 25bps on standard assets MMFSL provided Rs 285 mn on account of regulatory requirement. Apart from that the disbursement growth (22% YoY), NII grew (34% YoY) with 7 bps YoY compression in the spread, Substantial improvement in Asset Quality with GNPA at 6.1% as compare to 10.1% in Q3FY10, Provision coverage remains high at 82%

Loan book grew by 47%YoY & 11%QoQ, resulted in healthy NII growth of 34%YoY. Disbursement has grown up by 22%YoY with maintain growth in Car and Tractor Vehicle but the highlight for the quarter is the disbursement growth of 57% YoY in high yielding used vehicle and other segments which lead to improve its proportion to 6% of total AUM as compare to 5% in Q3FY10.

Valuation: At CMP of 700, the stock is trading at P/ABVx of 2.7x and 2.2x of its FY11E and FY12E respectively. We still believe that the conservative provision policy, pan India presence, normal monsoon and rural centric business will lead to the growth momentum for the company and lead to better ROE. We believe that as the disbursement momentum for 9MFY11 (which generally a slack season for the company) will maintain which lead to higher advances growth and further the Rural housing business also saw some traction. Based on the assumption of sustainable ROE of 18-19% we believe that 2.5x (earlier assume at 2.8x) ABVPS represent to be the fair value.

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IDBI Bank - Tough times, but still looks good value-RBS

For 3QFY11, IDBI Bank reported in-line core earnings, but asset quality slipped qoq and management has lowered business growth targets to improve NIMs and ROAs. The rising interest rate environment poses a challenge going forward but, with valuations remaining attractive, in our view, we reiterate our Buy rating.

3QFY11: Core earnings largely in line but asset quality slips
IDBI Bank's net interest income rose 3% qoq in 3QFY11 (+117% yoy), in line with qoq loan growth of about 3.0% as margins remained largely stable at 2.28% (+69bp yoy). Core fee income remained flat yoy in the quarter (+18% yoy in 9MFY11), partly due to slow asset growth. The loan loss provision charge rose to 40bp in 3Q (26bp in 2Q) as asset quality slipped and the bank raised its provision coverage ratio (75.6% as of December 2010). The tax rate was low at 6% as the bank took a deferred tax credit for provisions. Although gross NPLs rose to 2.2% of loans (as of December), on an aggregate basis (including adjusted restructured loans) asset quality appears largely in line with domestic peers in our coverage.

FY12F: Slower loan growth, focus on liability mix
Loan growth was 21% yoy (+3% qoq) as of December 2010 and management is now guiding for slower growth of about 14% in FY12. On the back of this revised guidance, we have cut our loan growth estimates to 10% for FY11 and 14% for FY12 (from 16% earlier for both years). Given the expected slower loan growth, the bank is aiming to slow deposit growth and thus boost the proportion of low-cost deposits (current and savings accounts, or CASA). The CASA ratio was 15.0% as of December 2010, which the bank is targeting to raise to around 18% by March 2011. Given the rising interest rate environment and the bank's largely wholesale-funded liability mix, we expect margins to be about 2.1% in FY12F (vs 1.9% in FY11F).

Tough times ahead, but valuations appear attractive
On net profit, we cut FY11F by around 8% (largely due to muted other income and higher provisions) and keep FY12F largely unchanged. In the long term, we expect traction in RoA to continue. However, given the current rising interest rate scenario, we think the increase in RoA and ROE could prove slower than we had earlier anticipated. We therefore reduce our sustainable ROE assumption from 17.5% to 16.0%, resulting in our SOTP-based target price falling to Rs181 (from Rs211). The stock trades at 1.2x FY12F adjusted book value and 7.4x earnings, which we believe are attractive valuations. Buy.

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Investor's Eye: Update - HDFC Bank, Marico, IRB Infra, Deepak Fertilisers, Grasim, HUL, IDBI Bank

HDFC Bank
Cluster: Evergreen
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs2,578
Current market price: Rs2,052

Q3FY2011 results: First-cut analysis

Result highlights

HDFC Bank?s results were slightly higher than our estimates as the net interest income (NII) grew 25% year on year (YoY) while the profit after tax (PAT) grew by 33% YoY to Rs1,087 crore. A strong growth in NII coupled with a higher contribution from non interest income (led by fee income) were the key drivers for profit growth. The margins and the current account- savings account (CASA) ratio remained stable at 4.2% and 50.5% respectively. An improvement in asset quality continued as gross and net non performing assets (NPA)s declined to 1.1% and 0.2% respectively (from 1.16% and 0.3% in Q2FY2011).
NII up 25% YoY, advances growth moderates on Q-o-Q basis: The growth in NII was slightly ahead of our estimates as it grew 25% YoY and 10% quarter on quarter (QoQ) to Rs2,777 crore. This was driven by a strong growth in advances at 33% YoY and stable margins. On a sequential basis, advances growth was at 1.3%, which is lower than expected due to the repayment of some large corporate loans.
Margins and CASA remain stable: The net interest margin (NIM) remained stable on a Q-o-Q basis while it declined 10 basis points on a Y-o-Y basis to 4.2%. The CASA ratio also remained stable at 50.5% compared to 50.6% in Q2FY2011. This was driven by a 31% YoY growth in saving deposits against a 24% growth in overall deposits.
Healthy growth in fee income: The fee income grew by 30% YoY and 10% QoQ to Rs943 crore. Income from foreign exchange and derivatives showed a strong recovery, growing by 42% QoQ. Overall the non-interest income grew by 17% QoQ and 25% YoY.
Improvement continues on asset quality: The asset quality continued to improve as gross and net NPAs declined, both on a percentage basis and absolute basis. The provision coverage (excluding written off accounts) increased to 81% while the proportion of restructured advances remained at 0.3% of loans.
Valuations: HDFC Bank has shown consistent growth over several quarters and maintains one of the best operating metrics (CASA, NIM, and return on assets [RoA]). Currently, the stock trades at 3.2x its FY2012E book value, which is at a significant premium to its peers. We will review our estimates and come out with a detailed report shortly.

Marico
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs133
Current market price: Rs128

Q3FY2011 results: First-cut analysis

Result highlights

Marico?s Q3FY2011 results have come ahead of our and the Street?s expectation mainly on account of a higher than expected revenue growth during the quarter.
The revenue growth during the quarter stood at 22.1% year on year (YoY) to Rs817.7 crore (ahead of our expectation of Rs766 crore). The strong growth can be attributed to the strong volume growth of 15% YoY and price-led growth of 7% YoY during the quarter.
The operating profit margin (OPM) of the company declined by 256 basis points YoY to 12.2% (in-line with our expectation of 12.0%), mainly on account of a sharp year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in the raw material cost. The raw material cost as a percentage to sales increased by 537 basis points YoY to 52.7%, mainly on account of a sharp increase in the prices of key raw materials such as copra (62% YoY) and rice bran oil (25% YoY).
Hence the operating profit stood flat YoY at Rs99.7 crore (higher than our expectation of Rs92.1 crore). However a lower incidence of tax resulted in an ~6% YoY increase in the adjusted profit after tax (PAT; before minority interest) to Rs71 crore (ahead of our estimate of Rs67 crore) during the quarter.
It was yet another quarter of strong performance by the focus portfolio with Parachute rigid packs registering a value growth of 14% YoY (~5% volume growth), Saffola posting a growth of above 20% YoY (13% volume growth) and the hair oil portfolio registering a volume growth of ~31%.
The international business, continuing with its strong performance, registered a revenue growth of 28% YoY. The strong growth can be attributed to the volume-led growth of 25% YoY and price led growth of 8% YoY. However the appreciating rupee had an impact of 5% on the revenue growth.
Kaya?s performance was the highlight of the quarter. Kaya?s skin care solution business (including Derma Rx) recorded a revenue growth of ~40% YoY to Rs62 crore. However on a like-to-like basis the company posted a much better performance with a revenue growth of 11% YoY to ~Rs49 crore. This can be attributed to an ~10% YoY increase in the same-clinic-sales. Kaya?s domestic business revenues grew by ~5% YoY with same-clinic-sales growing by ~8% YoY.
With price hikes implemented by the company to cover the spike in the raw material cost, the sustenance of steady volume growth in the focus portfolio is the key monitorable in the coming quarters. Also the company?s strategies to maintain operating margins in the band of 12-13% are a key monitorable in the coming quarters. We will review our estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 and come out with the detailed note soon. At the current market price the stock trades at 29.2x its FY2011E earning per share (EPS) of Rs4.4 and 23.1x its FY2012E EPS of Rs5.5. Currently we have a Hold recommendation on the stock.

IRB Infrastructure Developers
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs311
Current market price: Rs213

Q3FY2011 results: First-cut analysis

Result highlights

Earnings well ahead of estimates: IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB)?s consolidated net profit for the quarter grew by a strong 45.5% year on year (YoY) to Rs133 crore, which is above our as well as the Street?s expectation, led by a higher than expected earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBDITA) margin in the construction division (23% as compared to the expected 20%) and much lower than expected effective tax rate (17.5% as compared to the expected 30%).
Consolidated net sales up 54%: IRB?s consolidated net sales for the quarter grew by 54.4% YoY to Rs669 crore driven by the robust growth of 100.6% in the construction division to Rs455 crore. Three new projects commenced construction work during the quarter which led to a strong performance of the division. The revenue from the build operate transfer (BOT) space grew by 3.7% YoY and 5.3% quarter on quarter (QoQ) to Rs214 crore (in line with our estimates).
Operating margins surpass estimates: The EBITDA grew by 29.2% YoY to Rs294 crore, against our expectation of Rs276 crore. Though the EBITDA margin declined sharply by 855 basis points YoY to 43.9%, it stood higher compared to our estimates due to a better performance by the construction division. In the construction division, margins expanded by 451 basis points YoY to 23% against our expectation of 20%. The contraction in the overall margin is on account of an increase in the proportion of the construction revenue (from 52% in Q3FY2010 to 68% in the current quarter), which fetches lesser margins compared to the BOT division.
Valuation: After a recent lull in the project awarding activity by NHAI, it is again expected to pick up from Q4FY2011 onwards. Thus IRB being the largest toll operator and the second largest BOT player in India will benefit from the same. Further, its strong financials along with the healthy cash flows from its operational toll-based projects also provide comfort. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 16x and 11.6x its FY2011 and FY2012 estimated earnings respectively, which is attractive. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs311. We will come out with a detailed analysis post the conference call tomorrow.

Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs215
Current market price: Rs157

Q3 results above estimates

Result highlights

Results above our estimate: For Q3FY2011 Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd (DFPCL) has reported a net profit of Rs40.3 crore (a year-on-year [Y-o-Y] decline of 23.8%). Adjusting for the Rs3.4 crore of loss on the sale of land (vs a gain of Rs25.7 crore on the sale of land in Q3FY2010), the net income stood at Rs43.6 crore, indicating a growth of 60.7% YoY.
Top line up marginally: The total operating income for the quarter stood at Rs375 crore, up marginally by 2.2% YoY (down 8.7% sequentially) as the higher revenues from the chemical segment were largely offset by a sharp decline in the fertiliser trading revenues during the quarter. The top line stood above our expectations due to lower than expected revenues from the fertiliser segmnet during the quarter.
- Chemicals: The revenues from the chemical segment expanded strongly by 23.2% YoY (a 12.1% sequential growth) to Rs263 crore mainly on account of improved realisation during the quarter.
- Fertilisers: The revenues from the fertiliser segment declined by 23.7% YoY (down 36.4% sequentially) to Rs120.3 crore. The trading component of the fertiliser sales declined by 36.6% YoY mainly on account of lower prices for the bulk fertilisers like MOP.
Margin improves 321 basis points YoY: The operating profit margin (OPM) improved significantly during the quarter to 21.8% as compared to 18.6% in Q3FY2010 and 18.7% in Q2FY2011. The sharp improvement in the margin was achieved mainly on the back of a lower raw material cost as a percentage of net sales (58.5% in Q3FY2011 vs 64.1% in Q3FY2010). In terms of the segments:
- Margins for the chemical segment improved by 45 basis points YoY to 30.4% during the quarter; and
- Margins for the fertiliser segment improved by 54 basis points YoY to 52% during the quarter.
We lower FY2011 earnings estimates: We have lowered our FY2011 estimates to factor in the lower technical ammonium nitrate (TAN) sales volume for the year. Consequently, our revised earnings per share (EPS) estimate for FY2011 now stands at Rs21.1. We maintain our FY2012 EPS estimate.
Maintain Buy with price target of Rs215: We are confident about our FY2012 estimates and maintain our positive view on the stock in view of the company?s strong OPM (22.1% in M9FY2011, up 152 basis points) and expectations of a strong top line growth with the commencement of commercial production from its new TAN plant. At the current market price, the stock trades at attractive valuations of 7.4x its FY2011E EPS and 5.9x its FY2012E EPS. We maintain our Buy recommendation and price target of Rs215 on the stock.

Grasim Industries
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs2,500
Current market price: Rs2,360

Price target revised to Rs2,500

Result highlights

Consolidated earnings in line with expectation: Grasim Industries (Grasim)?s consolidated net profit in Q3FY2011 decreased by 13.5% year on year (YoY) to Rs501.8 crore, which was in line with our estimate. On a sequential basis, the bottom line grew by a strong 55.3% due to a better demand environment for viscose staple fibre (VSF) which resulted in an increase in the volume and realisation. Further, an increase in cement prices in the southern market resulted in a rise in the blended cement realisation.
Revenue growth driven by strong performance of VSF: The consolidated net sales of the company grew by 12.4% YoY to Rs5,384.5 crore driven by a healthy revenue growth (increased by 24.8% YoY) in the VSF division; chemical division posted the highest ever sales of 67,136 tonne during the quarter) and a 10% increase in the realisation. The revenue from the cement division grew by 8.6% YoY to Rs3,945 crore on account of a volume growth of 10% to 10.08 million tonne (including clinker sales and volume of Star Cement).
Margin contracted YoY but improved sequentially: The operating profit margin (OPM) of the company contracted by over eight percentage points YoY to 20.8%. The decrease in the OPM was mainly on account of a sharp decline in the profit before interest and tax (PBIT) margin of the cement division (from 22.2% in Q3FY2010 to 12.7% in Q3FY2011) on account of a fall in the cement realisation and cost pressure. Thus, the operating profit of the company decreased by 19.1% YoY to Rs1,120.2 crore. However, sequentially the OPM expanded by 460 basis points due to an increase in the realisation of the cement and VSF divisions.
Interest and depreciation costs rise due to capacity addition in cement: The company?s interest outgo surged by 37.1% to Rs108.8 crore and depreciation charge rose by 17.5% to Rs299.2 crore YoY during the quarter. The interest and depreciation charges increased on account of the commissioning of a cement capacity.
Consolidation of Star Cement takes place, booked 0.75 million tonne of cement volume: UltraTech Cement, a subsidiary of Grasim, had acquired a controlling interest in Star Cement during Q2FY2011. Star Cement owns cement plants in Dubai, Sudan, Bangladesh and Bahrain with a total capacity of 3 million tonne. During the quarter under review (Q3FY2011) Grasim consolidated the operation of Star Cement and booked cement volume of 0.75 million tonne. After factoring the acquisition of Star Cement, the consolidated cement capacity of the company now stands at 51.75 million tonne.
Upgrading earnings estimates to factor increase in VSF and cement realisation: We are upgrading our consolidated earnings estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 mainly to factor in the recent increase in VSF and cement realisation. Consequently our revised consolidated earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 stand at Rs220.4 and Rs261.6 respectively. Further we are also introducing our FY2013 earnings estimate with EPS at Rs282.8.
Maintain Hold, price target revised to Rs2,500: Given the improvement in the global demand for VSF, the performance of the division continues to shine in terms of both volume and realisation. Going ahead, we believe the profitability of the division would remain healthy due to the rising price of competing fibres. Further, the chemical division has also attended its highest volume and demand outlook?this is a positive going ahead given the increased offtake from the aluminium industry. However, its cement division is under pressure due to a poor cement offtake and unfavorable demand-supply scenario. As per the management, cement volume will grow at around 7% in FY2011. Further cost inflation in terms of the rising price of imported coal remains a key concern as the company procures about 35% of its total requirement through imports. On the valuation front, we continue to value stock using the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method and revise our price target for the stock to Rs2,500. We also maintain our Hold rating on the stock. At the current market price the stock trades at a price/earnings ratio of 9x, discounting its FY2012 estimated EPS.

Hindustan Unilever
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Reduce
Price target: Rs246
Current market price: Rs273

Price target revised to Rs246

Result highlights

The company?s net sales grew by 11.6% year on year (YoY) to Rs5,027.0 crore in the third quarter. The top line growth was entirely driven by a strong volume growth of 13% in the consumer business.
In line with our expectation, the raw material cost as a percentage of sales went up by 202 basis points YoY to 51.1% during the quarter. The raw material cost surged due to a sharp increase in the prices of the key inputs (including Palm Oil, LAB, Raw Tea & Coffee). This along with a 100-basis-point year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase to 14.8% in the advertisement cost as a percentage of sales resulted in a 353-basis-point Y-o-Y decline in the OPM to 12.4% (which was below our expectation of 13.6%). Thus, the operating profit of HUL declined by 13.1% YoY to Rs624.3 crore.
However, a higher other income resulted in just a 2.8% Y-o-Y decline in the adjusted profit after tax (PAT) to Rs586.0 crore.
Revised estimates: We have revised downwards our earnings estimate for FY2011 and FY2012 by 3% and 9.5% respectively to factor in the lower than expected growth in the core soap and detergent segment. Also, considering the sustenance of the higher advertisement spend (mainly to defend the market share in the key categories), we have increased our advertisement expenditure assumption for FY2011 and FY2012. We have also introduced our FY2013 estimates in this note.
Outlook and valuation: We expect HUL?s top line and bottom line to grow moderately at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.0% and 8% respectively over FY2010-13. Hence, considering the poor earnings visibility amongst the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) space we maintain our Reduce rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs246 based on 20x its FY2013E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs12.3. At the current market price the stock trades at 25.3x its FY2012E EPS of Rs10.7 and 22.0x its FY2013E EPS of Rs12.3.

IDBI Bank
Cluster: Cannonball
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs182
Current market price: Rs145

Price target revised to Rs182

Result highlights

IDBI Bank?s Q3FY2011 results were higher than our estimates as the profit after tax (PAT) grew by 58.1% year on year (YoY) to Rs454 crore led by a strong increase in the net interest income (NII) and lower operating expenses. Margins were at 2.28%, a 70 basis point improvement on a Y-o-Y basis. However, the asset quality of the bank continued to deteriorate as gross nonperforming assets (NPA) increased to 2.22% sequentially from 1.88% in Q2FY2011. The provision coverage ratio stood at 75.61%.
NII up 68% YoY, loan growth target lowered: The NII of the bank grew by 68% YoY to Rs1,204 crore. The total advances of the bank grew by 3.3% quarter on quarter (QoQ). The growth in advances has come on the back of the mid corporate and retail segments. The bank has reduced its advances growth target to 10% for FY2011.
Margins remain stable, focus on CASA: The margin of the bank has remained stable during Q3FY2011 at 2.28% while it has grown by 70 basis points YoY. Despite offering attractive schemes, the current account-savings account (CASA) balances have remained stable at around 15% levels. The bank plans to increase the CASA proportion to 18% by the year end. The net interest margin (NIM) for FY2011 could be maintained at ~2% levels.
Asset quality deteriorates: The asset quality of the bank deteriorated as gross NPAs increased to 2.22% in Q3FY2011 from 1.88% in Q2FY2011. This was due to the higher slippages of Rs690 crore recorded during the quarter mainly from the small and medium enterprise (SME) segment. This contributed to increased provisioning to Rs490 crore as against Rs319 crore in Q2FY2011. The bank has also made Rs43 crore worth of provision for teaser loans. Most of the slippages of the bank have been in the SME segment. The provision coverage ratio (including written off account) stood at 75.6%.
Cost-income ratio declines: The cost-income ratio of the bank declined from 38.2% to 31.3% sequentially. This was mainly due to gratuity provision of Rs100 crore made during Q2FY2011 which had lead to higher opex for the quarter (Q2FY2011). The bank targets to maintain the cost-income ratio at 33% in FY2011.
Maintain Buy with a revised price target of Rs182: Though the bank has reported higher than expected results during the quarter, an increase in slippages and slower pick up in CASA may impact the future profitability of the bank. The management has guided for a slower business growth ahead and increased focus on qualitative parameters (margins, CASA, asset quality etc). We have tweaked our estimates to factor in the above concerns. We expect the bank to post a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% in earnings over FY2010-13, and an average return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) of 0.8% and 15.8% respectively. We downgrade our sum of the parts (SOTP) based target price of the stock to Rs182 (valuing the bank at 1x FY2012E BV). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs182.

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Infosys Technologies Limited	26-May-11	ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND FINAL DIVIDEND `20/- PER SHARE
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Kesoram Industries Limited	17-Jun-11	DIVIDEND-`3.25 PER SHARE

Fund	Type	Open Date	Close Date
Quantum Gold Savings Fund	Gold FoF	28-Apr-2011	12-May-2011
Sundaram Equity Plus	Equity Fund with Gold ETF	04-May-2011	16-May-2011

Finance/Stocks/Equity/Mutual Funds Information Search

NewsWire for 11-05-2011

Morning Brief

Inflation & You

Ashok Leyland - Seasonally strong quarter ahead-RBS

Hindustan Unilever - Q3FY11 EBITDA disappoints-RBS

Tata Chemicals

Wipro

Dhanlakshmi Bank-Put On A Ratings Watch With Negative Implications

M&M Finance Gets A Downgrade-Cant Grow Your Book By 47% And Have Zero NPA's-Sell

IDBI Bank - Tough times, but still looks good value-RBS

Investor's Eye: Update - HDFC Bank, Marico, IRB Infra, Deepak Fertilisers, Grasim, HUL, IDBI Bank

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