Technicals for 11-May-2009
Dow Technicals
Dow trin(Daily):. 0.37 (bullish)
Trend Indicators:.MACD:.Bullish RSI:.Bullish ADX:.Bullish
Overall:.
Nifty Technicals
Nifty trin(Daily):. 1.73 (bearish)
Trend Indicators:.MACD:.Bullish RSI:.Bullish ADX:.Bullish
Overall:.
Nifty trin(Daily):. 1.73 (bearish)
Trend Indicators:.MACD:.Bullish RSI:.Bullish ADX:.Bullish
Overall:.
3715 is proving to be a strong resistance in Nifty and the daily charts for Nifty confirms a rangebound consolidation pattern before a big move. The mood is cautious and the market movers are on a wait and watch mode. On Friday we have seen sharp sell off in Nifty from the 3715 resistance level and Nifty finally ended the last session with almost 63 points loss at 3621 level. Fresh short building seen in Nifty future, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, DLF and HDFC Bank, fresh buying seen in JP Associates and ABAN whereas profit booking seen in Reliance, SBI and Reliance Capital.
---bse chart from caldaro.---here also 5 day rsi shows negative divergence.
---macd is also ready to give sell signal.
---but rsi is still at trendline support.
--rsi shows negative divergence so all longs should now needs to have proper hedge.--at the same time rsi is at trendline support of the uptrend so bias still remains on the long side.
---macd is converging and ready to give sell signal.
---stochastics have given sell signal.
CUES-
--Nifty May future discount converted to premium of 2 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 1.3 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 3.89 cr)
--3600 puts had open interest of 32 lacs and 3800 calls had open interest of 36 lacs, so 3600 and 3800 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 57.02, increased by 4% suggests instability and uncertainity.
--US markets closed in green.
--Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY—LONG.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—3603.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—3707.
--Nifty May future discount converted to premium of 2 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 1.3 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 3.89 cr)
--3600 puts had open interest of 32 lacs and 3800 calls had open interest of 36 lacs, so 3600 and 3800 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 57.02, increased by 4% suggests instability and uncertainity.
--US markets closed in green.
--Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY—LONG.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—3603.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—3707.
Weekly pivot levels of Nifty spot:
- R3 - 3970.70
- R2 - 3843.90
- R1 - 3732.30
- Pivot - 3605.50
- S1 - 3493.90
- S2 - 3367.10
- S3 - 3255.50
- R3 - 3822.10
- R2 - 3766.70
- R1 - 3693.70
- Pivot - 3638.30
- S1 - 3565.30
- S2 - 3509.90
- S3 - 3436.90
and at 3788 (200 Weekly MA). Daily RSI-2 is al 38.03, bearish, but weekly RSI-2 is at 98.08, super bullish. Even after the sell off of Friday, Nifty managed to close above its 5 DMA support. Till the 5 DMA support is intact in closing basis Nifty is not a positional sell and all upside targets towards 3800 remain intact. This week we will witness Election results, so all positional longs need to be offloaded in any rally towards 3715-3800 level. Also it will also be decided this week that whether we will be able to climb upto the peak of Everest (200 Weekly MA)?As a Nifty trading strategy tomorrow go long if Nifty breaks and sustains above the pivot level for targets of R1 and R2, and go short if Nifty breaks and sustains below S1 level for target of S2/S3. Keep a standard 25 points SL in all your intraday Nifty trades. On Friday my blog recommendation to short Nifty below the pivot level of 3664.40 for target of S1/S2 was bang on targets and Nifty found bottom around our S2 level only. Hopefully my readers were able to catch those valuable 75 Nifty points on the last sessions. Cheers
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