Finance/Stocks/Equity/Mutual Funds Information Search

BSE Sensex Till 17/04/2009

Labels:

BSE Sensex Daily Chart HighLighted Till 17/04/2009

Now for further gains above 11400-11500 may take the rally to new levels in overall bull scenario for the BSE Sensex.
The Steep ascending or uptrend channel on BSE Sensex is still intact. This fastest rally has covered an almost 3200 points from low of 8160 on 09/03/2009 to high of 11367 on 17/04/2009. In the period of 30/3/2009 -17/04/2009 many simple & runaway-gaps up have also been identified in the uptrend channel. The rally which started with a piercing line bottom trend reversal candle pattern on 30/03/2009, has now been slowed down with another powerful top trend reversal candle pattern called "Dark Cloud Cover". This Dark Cloud Cover Candle pattern is top reversal powerful candle pattern.



BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 17/04/2009

BSE Sensex has sucessfully broken out of Descending Channel thus affirming short term bullishness.
On monday longs should be careful and shorts also should be careful, since the BSE Sensex is still in the uptrend channel. As long as uptrend channel is intact the old longs are safe. On weakness at higher levels, then lower side of the steep uptrend channel (10500-10700) may offer a good support level for fresh longs.
Short should only venture if the uptrend channel breaks-out or ruptures on downside with a volume.With strict stop loss.


Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in November 2008, Higher tops & Higher bottoms structure was seen in the daily chart. Structurally from January 2009 again it has given way to Lower tops & Lower bottoms. Again the 9700 is a pivot point & intermediate weekly support/resistance convergence area.

Sideways struture has mix of both (Higher Tops-Higher Bottoms, Lower tops-Lower bottoms). The range between 10200-10700 is good support zone for BSE Sensex on reaction to downside.


Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
Currently in the Daily chart the KST momentum indicator is in overbought zone.As long as KST Indicator remains in overbought zone bulls can be comfortable.
Note: "The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."

Volume
The volumes From November 2008 to January 2009 are descent, they look more of accumulation . But accumulation can be authenticated on the descent rally. On 10/02/2009 highest volume was seen. The March 2009 rally now seems to authenticate the volume accumulation since November 2008. In April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which is good indicator that the this rally is a powerful one.


Trendline
Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occassions, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossovered the descending channel on the upside.


Retracement
Since the fall from high of 21237...January 2008,the retracements of 32%-13097, the 50%-10597 & 61.8% -8096 levels.
BSE Sensex on 6/03/2009 made a low of 8047, thus covering 61.8% of the total fall and on 08/04/2009 crossed 10597 ,thus covering 50% retracement of total fall.

Moving Averages
In the daily chart of BSE Sensex the last week all moving average from 13ema, 34ema, 50sma & 100sma were successfully crossed. Even 200dma has been crossed by BSE Sensex in daily chart. For further authenication BSE Sensex should atleast consistently be above 200dma for a week, then the possibility of market may said to have bottomed out.

Sensex Key Support Level-- --- 10492, 10523, 10673.
Sensex Key Resistance Level--- 10998, 11211, 11367.



BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 17/04/2009
Currently in Weekly BSE Sensex Chart,the BSE Sensex has entered the weekly descending Channel and has touched the upside of the Weekly descending channel.If it breaks out of the Weekly Descending channel then, symmetrical triangle target may be achievable.
So currently 11400-11500 is very crucial level for the BSe Sensex & breakout above the Weekly descending channel.

Old Overview of BSE Sensex Weekly Chart.
In the Above Sensex Weekly Chart from the high in January 2008, BSE Sensex has been trading in Weekly Descending channel. In October 2008 sensex broke out of descending channel signalling exhaustion and since then has been trading side ways below the descending Channel. This sideways trading has given to formation of symmetrical triangle.The symmetrical triangle often referred to as side-ways or consolidation pattern. It means before embarking upon any trend, it is breather period.The last week it was indicated that we will revisit the Symmetrical Triangle once again. Since Late february 2009-insert- bseseb 08/03/2009- it was indicative that BSE Sensex may give a down fall. Hence bearish scenario was taken into account.
Symmetrical triangle though are a continuation pattern usually. But sometimes Triangles may act as a reversal pattern also. As it is Triangles are one of the most trickiest patterns. Hence we revisit the pattern in BSE Sensex Weekly and have a re-look at our targets.
This weekly Triangle has given breakout downward at 9250. So now we will consider 9250 for calculations purpose.
The calculations now stand as follows:
The base of the triangle is (High 11870-Low 7700) = 4170.
Upward target after Breakout will be (9250+4170) = 13420.
Again this target of 13420 can be said to be achievable provided the uptrend line of the descending channel is crossed by the BSE Sensex on the upside which is 11400-11500 currently.


Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST though in the oversold zone but have given bullish cross over and is going up to zeroline. Which means that the upward momentum is ganing strength. Hence an extended upmove is seen in the weekly BSE Sensex Chart.
But still the intermediate tone can still said to be bearish in the BSE Sensex. Unless KST indicator gives breakout on the upside in the overbought zone, intermediate bullishness cannot be affirmed.


BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 17/04/2009

BSE Sensex Monthly Chart.April 2009
The January 2009 and February 2009 Candle pattern was Bullish Engulfing Pattern.Which was left out in hindsight.The March monthly Candle was bullish belt hold line candle pattern.In the BSE Sensex monthly chart the sensex has support at 100sma which is at 8155 & 50 sma is at 12176 . Also for the purpose of clarity we keep The Dynamic triangle-pattern on the backburner till April 2009 candle is taken into consideration.
Unless 11400-11500 area is not crossed by the room for down fall remains.As has been indicated may times in BSE Sensex posts, bottoming out is long, tedious and tricky processes. Finally again as retreated often that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for longterm till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken. And so far it does not appear to have broken. So long term BSE Sensex is still bullish.


Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators KST is in deep over sold zone. Oscillators have neither given any indication of patterns formation nor any divergence. But possibilty of bullish cross-over of KST Indicator can be anticipated if upmarch of BSE Sensex continues.



Share/Save/Bookmark
Subscribe
0 comments:

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Labels

 Get Free Updates of This Blog on Your PC!

Or Get Free Stock Market Tips and Analysis Delivered To Your eMail

Enter your email address

twitter / mon3yworld

Popular Posts


Blog Archive


Skype Me™!

Recent Posts


Total Pageviews

free counters
Do you Trade/Invest in ?
Select an option:
Stock Forex Mutual Funds Government Bonds Commodities Non Term Insurance (eg ULIPS) Indian Post Fix Deposits
Results

Use 'Powered by PCLinuxOS' instead of 'Built for Microsoft Windows'