Wall Street tells you it's the beginning of a prolonged bull market and stocks look great.

Don't believe it. And whatever you do, don't bet your portfolio on it. Look beneath the surface of the so-called recovery and you'll see enough trouble brewing to make the subprime market meltdown of 2008 "look like a walk in the park."

That's not just my opinion. That's the conclusion from RealtyTrac, the nation's largest foreclosure tracking firm.

We just survived the worst years in history for foreclosures, but we may not be so lucky in 2010.

One Federal Reserve member just reported that commercial real estate losses could reach 45% this year. That means $1.54 trillion in commercial loans could default, sinking the markets and plunging the economy back into recession.

But there's more. Option adjustable rate mortgages are teetering on the edge of the abyss, with $29 billion recast higher at the end of 2009, followed by another $67 billion in 2010. In fact, Barclays Capital says, "We expect 81% of the option ARMs originated in 2007 to default."

Yet those headlines are buried while Wall Street blares out about corporate earnings that "are not as bad as expected" and "lower job loss numbers" that don't feel very low to me.

And so unsuspecting investors are grabbing up cheap stocks, spurred on by Wall Street, and giddy with thoughts of a new bull market ahead.

But you're about to get a rude -- and costly -- surprise. If you continue down the path Wall Street is leading you on you could lose half your net worth.

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