Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold dived to as low as 1309.1 last week but recovered towards the end. Touching of 1347.4 minor resitance suggests that a short term bottom is in place. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1352.7/1392.9 resitance zone. But upside should be limited there and bring another fall. On the downside, below 1309.1 will bring fall resumption twoards 1155.6/1266.5 support zone.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that a medium term top is in place at 1432.5 after gold failed two important projection target, 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 and 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462. Note that whole up trend from 681 (2008 low) might have finnished a five wave sequence too. The fall from 1432.5 migh now be in progress towards 1044.5/1227.5 support zone. On the upside, devisive break of 1432.5 is now needed to confirm up trend resumption. Othewise, even in case of strong rebound, we'd expect another fall to extend the consolidation/correction from 1432.5.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 is almost met and a sizeable correction should be around the corner. Though, even in case of deep fall, 55 months EMA (now at 963.5 level) should present strong support to contain downside and bring another up trend.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart