SINGAPORE—Manufacturing in Asia continued to expand at fast clip while inflationary pressures increased further in January, as surging prices of oil, copper and other commodities add urgency to Asian authorities' efforts to keep inflation under control.
One of two January purchasing managers indexes for China released Tuesday was down slightly while the other ticked up, but both remained well in expansionary territory, echoing a strong reading Monday from Taiwan. South Korea's HSBC PMI showed its expansion moderating.
A Beijing produce market last month
All showed rising prices are a growing problem, adding to concerns that Asia's central banks may have kept interest rates too low for too long to stoke a recovery from the global financial crisis. Higher inflation in Indonesia and Korea underscored the challenge for policy makers, with Korean President Lee Myung-Bak saying Tuesday that if necessary, the government will consider cutting tariffs and taxes to tame it.
Inflation pressures could intensify as manufactures pass higher commodity costs to consumers: Brent crude-oil futures crossed above $100 a barrel for the first time in more than two years this week, as Egypt's political turmoil unnerving global investors, and copper and tin prices are at record highs.
International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said fast-growing Asian economies face a risk of overheating and may need to tighten monetary policy further. In a Singapore speech, he also urged Asian authorities to let their currencies rise to help fix global imbalances.
Financial and structural changes over the past decade have helped Asia weather the global economic crisis—the IMF expects growth to reach 8.5% in Asia excluding Japan this year, compared with just 2.5% in the developed world—but now "there are risks of overheating, and even a hard landing," Mr. Strauss-Kahn said.
"This means that macroeconomic policies should be tightened in countries where output gaps have nearly closed, or have in fact already closed," he said. "In Asia, recent rate actions were the right decision—though more may be needed."
Exchange-rate adjustments--a sensitive topic in China and other Asian countries that fear stronger currencies will harm their export competitiveness--"have to play an important role" and "should not be resisted," Mr. Strauss-Kahn said.
China's official PMI, published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, fell to 53.9 in December from 52.9 in January. The competing HSBC PMI for China rose to 54.5 from 54.4. Korea's HSBC PMI to a seasonally adjusted 53.5 from 53.9. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Economy
The details show inflationary pressures building. The input-price subindex of China's official PMI, a leading inflation indicator, rose to 69.3 from 66.7. "The rate of input-cost inflation eased to the slowest in four months, but remained considerable in the context of historical data," HSBC said.
People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan told Dow Jones Newswires Sunday that the central bank must be vigilant on inflation and may need to order banks to set aside more cash to address rapid capital inflows.
Citigroup expects the PBOC to raise rates by one percentage point this year, including a quarter-point imminently and a further half point by the end of June, said Johanna Chua, head of the bank's emerging Asia economic research. Since early last year, the central bank has raised rates twice and increased banks' reserve requirements several times.
Citigroup also expects China to continue to let its currency rise, forecasting the dollar will fall to 6.25 yuan by the end of the year. The Chinese currency is up 3.7% since mid-June, when Beijing ended its two-year peg to the dollar.
Korea's consumer prices were up 4.1% from a year earlier in January, accelerating from 3.5% in December, piercing the Bank of Korea's target band of 2% to 4% and exceeding the 3.9% forecast by economists in a Dow Jones Newswires poll. Export orders and employment continued to rise, HSBC said, indicating Asia's fourth-biggest economy is on track to "robust growth" in the first quarter. It also flagged signs of heightened price pressures, noting that input-price inflation rose at the fastest pace in 14 months.
"Input prices and output prices sub-indices are both approaching their respective record highs, intensifying inflationary pressures," said HSBC economist Song Yi Kim. Many economists expect the Bank of Korea, after a surprise rate increase in January, to raise them again in February.
A surge in the prices of food, oil and other commodities across Asia has helped drive a sharp sell-off in some bond markets, including in Indonesia and the Philippines, whose central banks have held interest rates at historically low levels even as inflation has picked up. China, Korea and Taiwan, by contrast, have started gradually raising rates and taking other measures to soak up excess liquidity.
Indonesia's inflation rate rose to 7.02% in January from 6.96% in December, topping expectations of 6.81%; Bank Indonesia's target is 5% plus or minus one percentage point. The central has kept its benchmark overnight rate at 6.5% since August 2009, and most economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it to hold steady again Friday.
In Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, the January inflation rate was 3.03%, little changed from December's, Commerce Ministry Permanent Secretary Yanyong Phuangrach said. The Bank of Thailand raised its policy rate on Jan. 12 by 0.25 percentage point to 2.25%, up a full percentage point since July, and minutes from the meeting show that an increase of half a percentage point was considered because of growing concerns about inflation. Last week both BOT Gov. Prasarn Trairatvorakul and Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij warned that inflation remains a key risk to economic growth. The bank next meets March 9.
The Reserve Bank of India last week cited inflation as a "dominant concern" as it raised its inflation estimate for the end of March to 7% from 5.5% and increased its policy interest rates by a quarter percentage point.
Citigroup's Chua forecasts China's inflation rate, which eased to 4.6% in December from 5.1% in November, will average 4.6% this year, with "risk to the upside given oil and food prices and excess liquidity feeding into inflation expectations."
Korean President Lee, during the televised interview in which he raised the possibility of tax and tariff cuts, said "the government needs to take the lead" in addressing inflation and added that "higher prices are a serious problem for the working class." The Bank of Korea surprised investors by raising interest rates by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75% in January, while the government unveiled inflation-fighting measures that included a tariff cut for key imports and pledge to freeze public-service charges including electricity and gas.
The country's Ministry of Strategy and Finance forecasts that "temporary price-destabilizing factors"—such as foot-and-mouth disease, which is raising meat costs—will ease starting in the second quarter, and inflation "will fall back into normal levels in the second half."
—Michael S. Arnold and Sam Holmes in Singapore, Aaron Back in Beijing, Se Young Lee and Kanga Kong in Seoul and Leigh Murray in Bangkok contributed to this article.Write to Arran Scott at arran.scott@dowjones.com
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