Automobile Statistics - FY11 replicates a second consecutive year of superlative growth, Sales throughout all segments are at its Peak
| Production Statistics | | | | | | | |
| Segment | FY10 | % Chg YoY | FY11 | %Chg YoY | 8 yrCAGR (%) | 5 yr CAGR(%) | 3 yr CAGR(%) |
| PV | 2351240 | 27.90% | 2987296 | 27.10% | 15 | 14 | 18 |
| CV | 566608 | 35.90% | 752735 | 32.80% | 13 | 8 | 22 |
| 3Wheeler | 619093 | 24.60% | 799553 | 29.10% | 11 | 8 | 17 |
| 2Wheeler | 10512889 | 24.90% | 13376451 | 27.20% | 11 | 10 | 17 |
| TOTAL | 14049830 | 25.80% | 17916035 | 27.50% | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| Domestic Sales | | | | | | | |
| Segment | FY10 | % Chg YoY | FY11 | %Chg YoY | 8 yrCAGR (%) | 5 yr CAGR(%) | 3 yr CAGR(%) |
| PV | 1949776 | 25.60% | 2520421 | 29.30% | 14 | 13 | 18 |
| CV | 531395 | 38.30% | 676408 | 27.30% | 13 | 8 | 21 |
| 3Wheeler | 440368 | 25.90% | 526022 | 19.50% | 8 | 5 | 15 |
| 2Wheeler | 9371231 | 26.00% | 11790305 | 25.80% | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| TOTAL | 12292770 | 26.40% | 15513156 | 26.20% | 11 | 9 | 17 |
| Exports | | | | | | | |
| Segment | FY10 | % Chg YoY | FY11 | %Chg YoY | 8 yrCAGR (%) | 5 yr CAGR(%) | 3 yr CAGR(%) |
| PV | 446146 | 32.90% | 453479 | 1.60% | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| CV | 45007 | 5.60% | 76297 | 69.50% | 20 | 9 | 21 |
| 3Wheeler | 173282 | 17.00% | 269967 | 55.80% | 19 | 13 | 22 |
| 2Wheeler | 1140184 | 13.50% | 1539590 | 35.00% | 25 | 20 | 15 |
| TOTAL | 1804619 | 17.90% | 2339333 | 29.60% | 22 | 18 | 15 |
| | | | | | | | |
| AUTO INDUSTRY | 14097389 | 25.30% | 17852489 | 26.60% | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| Our Expectations were | FY10 | FY11E | %Chg YoY | Actuals | FY12E | %Chg YoY | |
| TOTAL PV | 1949776 | 2242242 | 20.00% | 29.30% | 2898484 | 15.00% | |
| TOTAL CV | 531395 | 637674 | 25.00% | 27.30% | 764341 | 13.00% | |
| TOTAL 2&3 W | 9811599 | 11087107 | 18.00% | 25.50% | 14410103 | 17.00% | |
| TOTAL | 12292770 | 13967023 | 14.00% | 26.20% | 18072928 | 16.50% | |
Comments - Industry growth - FY11 - Actuals top Estimates
- Passenger Vehicle Sales in the Domestic market sees a growth of 29.3% as against our expectations of 20%.
- Commercial Vehicle sales grow by 27.3% as against our estimates of 25%
- The 2Wheeler and 3 Wheeler pack sees a growth of 25.5% as against our estimates of 18%
Key Highlights - Export growth is worth noticing
- Exports of PV see sub-par growth of 1.6% in FY11 as against its 8year , 5 year, 3year CAGR of 17%, 18% and 11% respectively
- Exports of CV - after 2 years of poor growth with FY09 seeing degrowth and FY10 seeing ~6% growth, FY11 sees a huge jump of ~70%, surpassing its earlier peak seen in FY08
- Exports of 3 Wheelers - Continues to do well in FY11 with a astounding 56% jump , surpassing its earlier peak seen in FY07. For 3W years 2008 and 2009 were bad.
- Exports of 2 Wheelers - sees a growth of 35% in FY11 , well above its 8 year CAGR of 25%.
Estimates for FY12 - Growth to normalise on a high base
- 2Wheeler & 3Wheeler pack to show the highest growth - 17% - as though it is a price sensitive industry it is less vulnerable to crude move, and, interest rates as cash sales are higher than credit sales
- PV's to see a growth of 15% on the back of high competition and rise in input costs, impacting the pricing power. But the main demand deterrant would be rise in interest rates.
- CV's growth would much depend upon new infrastructure projects, industrial growth, freight rates and NBFC financing. We expect this segment to grow by 13% as it is the most sensitive to interest rate move (given the high finance exposure) and fuel price move as it directly impacts the cv operators ownership cost.
Regards,
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