Market outlook
Bridging the gap!
The hardest thing to learn in life is which bridge to cross and which to burn. - David Russell.
Five days of positive action on the bourses has seen the Nifty cross the 200-DMA in intraday trade though it ended just shy of it. The Nifty could finish above the critical technical level today but any upside won't be without hiccups. Global cues are mixed. The start is likely to be a subdued one on account of the overnight fall in the US market and weakness in the Asian benchmarks.
The encouraging part is that FII inflows – a major catalyst for Indian markets – have picked up in the past few days. Yet, beware of volatility ahead of the year-end tax adjustments and F&O expiry. On the whole, the undertone for the Indian market is likely to remain upbeat as long as the Nifty sustains above 5600. The next big obstacle is seen around 5750.
Banks and IT titans could pace the rally from here on. Keep an eye on Reliance. Telecom shares might be back in the spotlight as the CBI gets ready to file chargesheet in the 2G scam on March 31.
Trading ideas (Time period: 1-3 days)
Bharat Forge (SELL, below Rs339, Target Rs330): On the daily chart, Bharat Forge is trading near the resistance line which coincides with its 200-DMA, suggesting that the likelihood of further upside over the short-term has diminished. For now, the risk/return of establishing long positions is less than ideal. Bharat Forge has thrice run into its 200-DMA line of the and fallen back, and last week it was a fourth attempt to close above the important moving average. Moreover, appearance of falling tops signifies the bulls inability to form higher highs. Based on above mentioned technical evidences, we recommend traders to short Bharat Forge March Futures below Rs339 with stop loss of Rs343 for target of Rs330.
SKumars (BUY, between Rs52-52.5, Target Rs56.5): After hitting an all time peak of Rs97 stock has seen a severe correction with prices decelerating almost 50% from the peak. However in last few days stock has witnessed breakout above Rs52.5 after a steady consolidation. This is negated short term downtrend and stock is likely to see some buying momentum in the short term. Based on the projection of breakout, stock could test levels of Rs60 and beyond that could attempt levels of Rs68.Volumes trend suggest accumulation at lower levels. We advise buying stock in the range of Rs52-52.5 with stop loss of Rs50.5. (Duration 7 days).
Derivative strategies (Time period: Till expiry)
Strategies
± Long UCO Bank March Future in range of Rs106.5 – 107.5 for the target price of Rs112.5 with a Stop loss placed at Rs104.5.
Lot size: 2000
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,000 and net maximum loss of Rs6,000.
± Long PTC March Future in range of Rs83-84 for the target price of Rs88 and stop loss placed at Rs81.50.
Lot size: 2000
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs10,000 and net maximum loss of Rs5,000.
Mutual funds
Fund focus | ||||
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund | Invest | |||
Fund manager | Sankaran Naren | Min investment | Rs5,000 | |
Latest NAV | Rs104.8 | Entry load | Nil | |
NAV 52 high/low | Rs112/87 | Exit load | 1% before 1 year | |
Latest AUM | Rs2,785cr | Benchmark | S&P CNX Nifty | |
Class | Equity – diversified | Asset allocation | Equity (81%), Cash (19%) | |
Options | Growth & dividend | Expense ratio | 1.85% | |
Corporate Snippets
± ONGC has bagged 10 of the 33 oil and gas exploration blocks that received bids at the close of the ninth licensing round. (FE)
± According to regulator DGH, Reliance Industries has not kept its commitment on drilling wells on the prolific eastern offshore KG-D6 field that has seen drastic fall in production. (ET)
± Reliance Infrastructure has announced Rs10bn share buy-back implying 8.34% shares from public shareholders. (ET)
± Reliance Industries has bid for two deepsea blocks in the Andaman Basin in the Bay of Bengal and four onshore blocks in Rajasthan and Gujarat. (ET)
± Dr Reddy laboratories has launched levocetirizine tablets, a generic version of Belgian drugmaker UCB's allergy drug Xyzal, in the US. (ET)
± Shriram City Union Finance plans to raise Rs7.5bn via issue of non-convertible debentures. (ET)
± ONGC sold a cargo of Sudanese Nile Blend crude at the strongest differential in two years on firm Japanese demand for the medium sweet grade. (BS)
± Coal India has lowered the production target to 440mn tons from 460mn tons for the current fiscal. (BS)
± TCS has bagged an order from Australian financial institution CUA for deployment of its banking solution. (BS)
± Idea would invest Rs42bn in 3G network infrastructure, including erecting around 16,000 towers by March, 2012. (ET)
± Power Grid Corp has sought sectoral regulator CERC's permission to utilise existing electricity transmission infrastructure for telecommunication purposes. (ET)
± ITC Hotels, the hotels division of the tobacco-to hospitality major ITC, is foraying into retail mall and service apartments. (ET)
± SREI Infrastructure Finance has been classified as Infrastructure Finance Company by the Reserve Bank. (BS)
± Australia's Platinum Investment Management has raised its stake in Unitech to 5.16%. (BS)
± Essar Oil may defer its planned refinery shutdown to September-October from a planned May-June. (BS)
± IDFC has collected over Rs14bn from over 0.75mn investor applications in three tranches of its long-term infrastructure bonds. (BL)
± SEBI has cleared iGate's US$301mn open offer for purchase of 20% stake in Patni Computer from public shareholders. (ET)
± The Union Cabinet is likely to approve the induction of Rs45bn foreign equity by Hero Investments Pvt Ltd (HIPL), mainly to fund the buyout of 26% of Japan's Honda in Hero Honda. (ET)
± Volkswagen said it plans to make an initial investment of Rs1.2bn to launch its non-banking financial arm in India. (ET)
± KMC Infratech Limited has received an equity investment of Rs5 bn from 3i India Infrastructure Fund. (ET)
± Reliance Broadcast Network announced its foray into the regional television space with the launch of its Hindi entertainment channel - Big Magic. (BS)
± Viceroy Hotel's board has approved hiving off its Chennai project into a separate company, a move that will cut debt on its balance sheet. (BL)
Economy snippets
± The government is framing a national policy for public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure projects to eliminate the inconsistencies in current rules and make the sector more attractive to foreign investment. (ET)
± The National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development and sponsor banks will jointly bear 90% of the cost for implementing modern banking technology in weak regional rural banks to prepare them to reach out to a larger audience in remote areas without brick-and-mortar presence. (ET)
± The government will invite expression of interest for 15 mega food parks over the next three months. (ET)
± CII will unveil an initiative in May that will facilitate global partnerships for producing cheaper technology for the masses through innovation. (ET)
± Government has appointed a special court to try cases relating to 2G-spectrum scam following directions of the Supreme Court. (ET)
± The Telecom Ministry will take a final decision on 2G spectrum pricing and on those holding airwaves beyond contracted limit of 6.2 Mhz, based on recommendations of TRAI, within next three months before seeking Telecom Commission's approval. (ET)
± The Reserve Bank will announce draft guidelines for giving new banking licences in the coming few days. (ET)
± The Finance Ministry said the guidelines for infrastructure debt funds will be announced by June to help the core sector meet its financing requirement, which has been pegged at US$1 trillion during the 12th Plan period (2012-17). (ET)
± Parliament is likely to take up the new Companies Bill, which seeks to replace a half-acentury-old Act, in the next session. (ET)
± The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs is likely to discuss the issue of buying back of fertiliser bonds issued by the government to the manufacturing firms in lieu of subsidies. (BS)
± The Supreme Court has asked the market regulator SEBI to clarify its stand on whether it was going to accept the report of a high-powered committee, which had probed IPO scam of 2006 and the role of NSDL in it. (BS)
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